Fifa International · resolved market
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4856548569ad1005e80e450bd5a478f00ace3e1dd6f097abc9d7115fac7b3cf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 14c | 8,004$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,844.1 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Yes | 74c | 4,465$3,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.02 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…87e0backed Yes | 39c | 3,862$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.97 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 55c | 2,061$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.46 | 263 | 30%79 W · 184 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 1,750$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 62c | 1,694$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.27 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Yes | 35c | 1,150$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.32 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 46c | 838$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.92 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 588.88$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.33 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 65c | 450.26$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.64 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 414.17$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.62 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed No | 35c | 312$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…7c9bbacked No | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7b80backed Yes | 30c | 291.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.2 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 10c | 239$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 19c | 213$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.46 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 185$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 11c | 156.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.13 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…a14cbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5af4…183cbacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…ea51backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefd4…51b1backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 125$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 119.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 116.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 77c | 101.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 184 | 60.9%112 W · 72 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 17c | 86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 228 | 34.6%79 W · 149 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 82.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 61c | 67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 49c | 53.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 64c | 49.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x610e…b852backed Yes | 28c | 47.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 44.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.