Fifa International · resolved market
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a7a5c84dd0ae2e1dc02ebbf1d5624b68e06bdf7715118ee4500eb1e5fb7dd95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c22…a280backed Yes | 52c | 960.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 50c | 559.84$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.04 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 48c | 417$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.84 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 8c | 401.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 10c | 376.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 50c | 207.52$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…f8d0backed Yes | 14c | 174.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 51c | 125$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…41afbacked Yes | 45c | 123.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…5325backed Yes | 48c | 117.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 53c | 110.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 184 | 60.9%112 W · 72 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 10c | 105.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 168 | 47%79 W · 89 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 27.6%34 W · 89 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 18c | 95.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 47c | 80.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 74.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 50.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 31.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…62aebacked Yes | 52c | 27.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 279 | 40.5%113 W · 166 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 47c | 26.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…424ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…e8f7backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Yes won
- Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.