Fifa International · resolved market
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12e37861a44212632762a2bc703b39c46266d12335656af536bdad7ddae98db0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 55c | 2,135$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.94 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 47c | 1,669$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.38 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 49c | 988.26$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.74 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 56c | 578.88$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.12 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 30c | 330.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 68.3%99 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 270.46$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 51c | 268.57$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 39c | 209.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 55c | 202.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked No | 43c | 196.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 138 | 55.1%76 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 185$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…7973backed Yes | 47c | 183.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed Yes | 55c | 182.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 69c | 175.67$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 48c | 169.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked No | 45c | 152.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 145.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…9781backed Yes | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…4fe6backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7b80backed No | 43c | 98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 45c | 94.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 43c | 92.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 90.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…c3d3backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 51c | 87.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 46c | 83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 45c | 77.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 50c | 77.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 74.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 47c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 66.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 62.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5335backed Yes | 55c | 57.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 51c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 228 | 34.6%79 W · 149 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Yes | 47c | 52.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a48…ba21backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…ae4ebacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 165 | 49.1%81 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 46c | 44.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 53c | 44.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 49c | 43.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 56c | 40.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 66c | 36.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 61.3%119 W · 75 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…424ebacked No | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 47c | 34.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 69c | 32.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 79c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…b71ebacked Yes | 55c | 25.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…ea95backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…1828backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 168 | 47%79 W · 89 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -15.0wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…53a1backed No | 68c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Yes won
- Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.