TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5eda…b71e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: CS2, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 55 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST3161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+257.1%+$36
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+42.9%+$18
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+38%+$24.8
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3)backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+38.9%+$8.4
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winnerbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+138.1%+$34.8
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3)backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+112.8%+$26.5
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$62
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+94.8%+$73
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+42.9%+$15
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3)backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3)backed Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Natus Vincere (BO1)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+42.9%+$13.5
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO1)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+29.9%+$11.5
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+58.7%+$74
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO1)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$18.5
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs TheMongolz (BO1)backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$320
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1)backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+42.9%+$30
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winnerbacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+85.2%+$46
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3)backed Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+62.9%+$38.6
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3)backed Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+160%+$61.54
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3)backed Imperial · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+146.9%+$118.99
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3)backed NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO1)backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO1)backed TYLOO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$16.4
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT2020%4 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-60.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.73
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.79
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.27
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+239.8%+$40.37
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.97
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$21.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.85
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.56
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.7
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.83
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+43.9%+$26.83
All 20 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,339Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,339.01
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$611Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$239.03
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$10.8
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+37%+$54
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$21
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$12.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.