TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIAof FURIA, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$616,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$673,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $616,136 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 510 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Natus Vincere38c136,507$51,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,979.759942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed FURIA61c89,699$54,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,175.597363%46 W · 27 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FURIA61c34,277$20,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,300.71,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed FURIA63c26,701$16,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,892.219247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed FURIA63c24,000$15,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,779.9657647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed FURIA62c17,920$11,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,822.6272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere25c17,129$4,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,338.254,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked FURIA62c16,112$9,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,122.552653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked FURIA63c15,873$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,873.0281751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere39c15,096$5,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,901.093,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed FURIA63c14,901$9,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,513.222958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere38c13,217$4,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,960.2981843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e4…f06fbacked Natus Vincere37c13,000$4,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,809.981070%7 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+94.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7437…e1e9backed Natus Vincere10c12,714$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.9210942.2%46 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Natus Vincere37c12,000$4,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,439.9927133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1340…e38bbacked Natus Vincere0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed Natus Vincere38c9,371$3,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,560.99050%45 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Natus Vincere38c9,250$3,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,514.9213633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked FURIA71c7,864$5,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.181,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked FURIA62c7,037$4,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,674.0915050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed FURIA63c6,763$4,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.9513537.8%51 W · 84 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere25c6,545$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.911,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df8…a696backed FURIA61c6,300$3,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4573452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b51…edf0backed Natus Vincere39c6,069$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.511533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef92…9df5backed Natus Vincere39c5,554$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.222972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9095…2f3fbacked Natus Vincere38c5,196$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.628852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Natus Vincere40c5,080$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.9922849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Natus Vincere38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90023355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Natus Vincere1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed FURIA78c4,967$3,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.1546345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Natus Vincere36c4,822$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.9225842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed FURIA63c4,325$2,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,620.8830335.6%108 W · 195 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed FURIA61c4,098$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.3619660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Natus Vincere35c4,054$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.1267041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf989…47ccbacked Natus Vincere37c4,048$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003020%6 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd3…da1ebacked Natus Vincere2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80150%0 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadc5…3d41backed FURIA61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5601752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed FURIA61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.998042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe232…042dbacked FURIA63c3,968$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.25560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ba…4e57backed FURIA63c3,968$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.257349.3%36 W · 37 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Natus Vincere39c3,735$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4509234.8%32 W · 60 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d7c…981cbacked FURIA62c3,700$2,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.584334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Natus Vincere35c3,664$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.5113646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Natus Vincere32c3,582$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.861228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb819…cc67backed Natus Vincere6c3,577$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.6624155.6%134 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed FURIA61c3,330$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.874344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed FURIA61c3,250$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28124846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Natus Vincere12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36030340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed FURIA63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11024139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed FURIA62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14046949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere23c2,960$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.823,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere37c2,900$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.991,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Natus Vincere7c2,857$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+61.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Natus Vincere38c2,789$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0609044.4%40 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed FURIA64c2,763$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.728453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FURIA63c2,759$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.181,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked FURIA62c2,738$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.1327452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Natus Vincere37c2,732$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.8411758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Natus Vincere37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Natus Vincere1c2,578$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7813315.8%21 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Natus Vincere39c2,564$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005756.1%32 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Natus Vincere38c2,558$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.4427950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Natus Vincere36c2,255$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.832930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4403…4252backed Natus Vincere37c2,222$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8224850%24 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked FURIA61c2,068$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.7183652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Natus Vincere39c2,061$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80019834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed Natus Vincere36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7208657%49 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed FURIA63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.9953746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Natus Vincere37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.9720855.3%115 W · 93 L+18.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed FURIA63c1,964$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.7929851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5c…43c8backed Natus Vincere10c1,900$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.192352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed FURIA61c1,820$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.9321055.7%117 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Natus Vincere39c1,650$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.511353.1%60 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…b2e0backed Natus Vincere38c1,640$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.24562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Natus Vincere39c1,625$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.7924440.6%99 W · 145 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked FURIA62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.925261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb615…5baebacked FURIA63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.155261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3bd…f543backed Natus Vincere2c1,529$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.634445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+66.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked FURIA63c1,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55512465.3%81 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1953…f310backed Natus Vincere36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Natus Vincere36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5406659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Natus Vincere36c1,500$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.989037.8%34 W · 56 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Natus Vincere37c1,484$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55013460.4%81 W · 53 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Natus Vincere15c1,469$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6642142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b8…1df6backed Natus Vincere21c1,431$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefb3…02bfbacked Natus Vincere14c1,400$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed FURIA62c1,331$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.718446.4%39 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Natus Vincere38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50034156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Natus Vincere38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006142.6%26 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5019…74cdbacked Natus Vincere39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011630.2%35 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Natus Vincere39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50026045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc79b…8cfabacked FURIA79c1,273$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.96580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Natus Vincere36c1,236$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.2629855%164 W · 134 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked FURIA62c1,200$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.9922056.4%124 W · 96 L+19.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Natus Vincere29c1,118$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.579141.8%38 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Natus Vincere36c1,113$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.683644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed FURIA63c1,079$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.110252%53 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere30c1,053$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.061,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a37…869bbacked Natus Vincere38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007552%39 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b4…5193backed Natus Vincere38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006454.7%35 W · 29 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.