TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof G2, TheMongolz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,002,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,177,593

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,002,288 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 508 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe74a…40eebacked TheMongolz34c147,030$49,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,039.792653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed G266c125,379$82,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,448.8421051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed G263c108,486$68,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,303.179942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed TheMongolz37c60,000$22,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,80030340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed G265c59,700$38,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,804.881216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-72.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed G265c46,080$29,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,841.4212648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked G266c41,721$27,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,480.349861.2%60 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked TheMongolz35c30,002$10,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,501.4913633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked TheMongolz36c23,675$8,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,091.9513646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed G229c23,157$6,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,814.344,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed TheMongolz37c18,555$6,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,772.0110252%53 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed TheMongolz33c17,900$5,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,993.325842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked TheMongolz60c17,639$10,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,987.341,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked TheMongolz75c17,096$12,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,244.8732930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed TheMongolz63c17,088$10,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,329.5928453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…f06fbacked TheMongolz33c15,900$5,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,614.961070%7 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+94.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed G267c14,228$9,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,533.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9095…2f3fbacked TheMongolz36c14,213$5,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,127.038852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed TheMongolz39c14,145$5,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,690.644648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed G225c13,948$3,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,495.211,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked G21c11,363$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.632330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked TheMongolz33c10,424$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,983.8114934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x28ba…4e57backed G258c10,391$6,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,029.227349.3%36 W · 37 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed TheMongolz33c10,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,699.964862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked G267c8,955$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00015050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd1…8257backed TheMongolz35c8,861$3,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,774.091963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed G252c8,715$4,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,547.4457647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked G222c8,276$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.331,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked G264c8,240$5,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,273.7883652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed TheMongolz34c7,634$2,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,038.4410252%53 W · 49 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed TheMongolz36c7,500$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8002958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked TheMongolz79c7,373$5,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.574763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5019…74cdbacked G221c7,316$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.311630.2%35 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef92…9df5backed TheMongolz38c7,157$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,407.212972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaab5…aab4backed G248c6,652$3,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1772060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed TheMongolz57c6,633$3,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,843.0922849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked G236c6,454$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,336.523,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked TheMongolz35c6,340$2,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1211553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked TheMongolz35c6,037$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,923.9824440.6%99 W · 145 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked TheMongolz36c5,986$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,843.2311353.1%60 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed TheMongolz34c5,686$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,752.7624846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked G229c5,499$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.652,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed G236c5,492$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe161…4ebfbacked TheMongolz34c5,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.991428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed G261c5,000$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,066.891,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked G222c4,952$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.271,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed G219c4,855$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.3881843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc609…7b6fbacked TheMongolz35c4,740$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0811181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+52.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked TheMongolz34c4,412$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,911.761,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed TheMongolz70c4,100$2,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.9913144.3%58 W · 73 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed TheMongolz36c4,000$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.9853746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed TheMongolz37c3,547$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.921,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed TheMongolz64c3,546$2,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.0213537.8%51 W · 84 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed G261c3,500$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.998657%49 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked G266c3,495$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.481,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed G267c3,333$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.927950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd19e…fabbbacked TheMongolz35c3,240$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.1862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+52.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05ca…679bbacked TheMongolz57c3,164$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.561656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed G238c3,161$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.2367041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked G23c3,086$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.313426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked TheMongolz61c3,053$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.683767.6%25 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed G267c3,004$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.9334146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c324backed TheMongolz36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9203056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+28%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked G265c3,000$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,94010442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked G251c2,942$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50027452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed TheMongolz35c2,857$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.146142.6%26 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked TheMongolz35c2,857$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.1419834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed TheMongolz36c2,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.7126549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked TheMongolz36c2,767$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.6732348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked TheMongolz35c2,650$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.3529046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2a3…4555backed TheMongolz69c2,561$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-63.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked G265c2,500$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6308051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed G218c2,415$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.691656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x928e…d701backed G244c2,332$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.74852.1%25 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked TheMongolz44c2,295$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.498052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed G266c2,273$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50017249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…5baebacked G267c2,239$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed G245c2,224$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009234.8%32 W · 60 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed TheMongolz37c2,119$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.826344.5%117 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9524…97b8backed G243c2,099$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.582429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed TheMongolz35c2,031$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.4312545.6%57 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked TheMongolz40c2,008$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.1127530.9%85 W · 190 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed G261c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22024139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked TheMongolz35c1,961$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.571,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked TheMongolz62c1,953$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.6420855.3%115 W · 93 L+18.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed TheMongolz35c1,928$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.219247.9%92 W · 100 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…1a4ebacked TheMongolz39c1,838$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.274630.4%14 W · 32 L-9.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa797…41bebacked G235c1,788$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.062152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked G249c1,710$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.2526351.3%135 W · 128 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfbb…55b0backed TheMongolz35c1,685$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.417156.3%40 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked TheMongolz64c1,600$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57611846.6%55 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed G252c1,500$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.6578639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked TheMongolz34c1,500$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99061228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df8…a696backed TheMongolz38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.33452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…61bcbacked TheMongolz38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93014239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x464e…1a67backed TheMongolz33c1,500$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0053053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked TheMongolz38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.9823932.2%77 W · 162 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed G269c1,457$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fd…8002backed G215c1,353$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0913950.4%70 W · 69 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed TheMongolz62c1,323$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.5721846.8%102 W · 116 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.