TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,425

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,425 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe3de…5339backed Yes80c1,476$1,181 inWon+$295.23132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed No20c742$148 inLost-$148.42536%9 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked No20c734$147 inLost-$146.81540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f75…7233backed Yes80c410.64$329 inWon+$82.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…838fbacked No20c410.64$82 inLost-$82.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd36…f531backed Yes77c356.1$274 inWon+$81.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb056…40e1backed No23c356.1$82 inLost-$81.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd26e…3fa5backed Yes77c292$225 inWon+$67.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97cd…f164backed No23c292$67 inLost-$67.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacba…5676backed Yes80c281$225 inWon+$56.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed69…7cc9backed No20c281$56 inLost-$56.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No11c218.44$23 inLost-$23.021455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No15c124.98$19 inLost-$192334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…7da2backed No15c100$15 inLost-$154544.4%20 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No16c79.07$13 inLost-$12.719021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed No15c70$11 inLost-$10.54845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d5d…a77abacked No25c60$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes75c40$30 inWon+$109753.6%52 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes72c30$22 inWon+$8.413333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5eda…b71ebacked Yes75c20$15 inWon+$5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd39a…926dbacked Yes78c15$12 inWon+$3.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.