Movies · resolved market
Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46be6b210eeec464e50588a9c0bfaf54de09d65da745581cc781500feb8f9a79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,376 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 68c | 1,018$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.97 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked No | 50c | 911.91$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes | 44c | 674.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.81 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 48c | 581.51$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.41 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 47c | 540.92$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.54 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed Yes | 40c | 520$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e52…19acbacked Yes | 50c | 504.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5989…2dcfbacked Yes | 52c | 451.92$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 12c | 399.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…b57dbacked Yes | 48c | 352.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 42c | 351.52$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 344.96$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 40c | 333$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 54c | 290.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 54c | 285.68$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 60c | 268$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 53c | 255.6$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.32 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…316cbacked Yes | 45c | 253.31$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 60c | 252$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 49c | 234.66$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 43c | 214.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.44 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9d…5fdabacked Yes | 49c | 204.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed Yes | 39c | 197.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 187.04$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6c…d024backed No | 56c | 180.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…3efebacked No | 56c | 177.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 52c | 156.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefcf…e2febacked Yes | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c2…952fbacked Yes | 61c | 153.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 145.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c00…cd0cbacked No | 52c | 124.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8b…a9b8backed Yes | 41c | 121.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1280…05a7backed Yes | 48c | 116.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed No | 56c | 115.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 60c | 115.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…f991backed Yes | 46c | 108.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…ca45backed Yes | 47c | 103.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 53c | 103.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 102.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…9bc6backed Yes | 45c | 101.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 54c | 101$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02a…f293backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d8…5ba1backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb331…1786backed No | 58c | 97.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed No | 77c | 97.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…d152backed Yes | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 37c | 95.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf47a…3c11backed No | 56c | 89.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 56c | 86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed Yes | 50c | 79.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…00bbbacked No | 64c | 78.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 78.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 53c | 77.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…def4backed Yes | 29c | 70.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…2c7fbacked Yes | 27c | 68.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed Yes | 44c | 65.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0e…25afbacked Yes | 48c | 63.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 45c | 55.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed Yes | 50c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 34c | 53.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1e…5e19backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…a2abbacked No | 55c | 53.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x434f…7d13backed Yes | 48c | 52.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda6c…e63dbacked Yes | 58c | 51.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…1cefbacked No | 50c | 51.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6b…902bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…6ffebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0372…4914backed Yes | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked No | 63c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…6e73backed Yes | 51c | 49.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 43c | 48.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 38c | 48.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…36c3backed Yes | 51c | 48.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bd…b94fbacked No | 62c | 48.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 56c | 45.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…f2f5backed No | 59c | 45.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1380…1cbabacked Yes | 44c | 45.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…f044backed Yes | 59c | 45.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 56c | 44.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 57c | 44.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…5783backed No | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85f…b0a0backed No | 59c | 43.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…5e9abacked Yes | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…26a7backed Yes | 53c | 43.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 27c | 42.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 49c | 42.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12a8…90ddbacked No | 59c | 42.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 51c | 40.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…8ea2backed Yes | 64c | 40.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf738…b2bbbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…d310backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…a2afbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…639fbacked No | 43c | 39.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Alien" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ballet" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Charlie Kirk" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Dream Big" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ellison" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Elon" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Greenland" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Kylie" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Leo" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Middle East" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Netflix" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Peace" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Sex" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Shame" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ukraine" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "White House" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Will Smith" or "Punch" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Zionist" or "Zionism" be said at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.