TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "President" be said at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,699 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb28…74f4backed Yes71c725$515 inWon+$210.25922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-68.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No12c339.39$40 inLost-$39.786222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6c…d024backed No18c280.23$50 inLost-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe818…9492backed No18c274.39$49 inLost-$49.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed No29c254$74 inLost-$73.661225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed No29c245$71 inLost-$71.051540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed No29c226$66 inLost-$65.541428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-38.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No15c188.1$28 inLost-$28.0317751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d4d…232dbacked No55c182.82$100 inLost-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No33c139.78$46 inLost-$46.1419532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No17c122$21 inLost-$20.9417540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1952…bd62backed No21c117.78$25 inLost-$2540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No12c114.86$13 inLost-$13.321455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No16c107.48$17 inLost-$17.24650%23 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4da9…b9c9backed No19c104.12$20 inLost-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Yes71c102.32$73 inWon+$29.362948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…d904backed No24c54.92$13 inLost-$13450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes70c43.04$30 inWon+$13.042927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24a8…e937backed No32c31.41$10 inLost-$10862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes58c29.65$17 inWon+$12.311030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-47.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d0d…355dbacked Yes75c26.67$20 inWon+$6.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes66c25.25$17 inWon+$8.59753.6%52 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5719…abbdbacked Yes80c25$20 inWon+$5560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Yes79c17.84$14 inWon+$3.757969.6%55 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.