TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Middle East" be said at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,662 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6abc…ca05backed No50c375.15$188 inWon+$187.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes50c368.87$184 inLost-$184.43837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-40.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x061c…8b9abacked Yes68c200$136 inLost-$136366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+86%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed No33c150.75$50 inWon+$100.345151%26 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+155.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No42c146.53$61 inWon+$85.234650%23 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes60c108$65 inLost-$64.97714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes55c96.59$53 inLost-$53.1223130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes14c92.42$12 inLost-$12.482619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-60%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x862c…9d40backed Yes39c86.3$34 inLost-$34650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c7…def4backed Yes40c83.36$33 inLost-$33.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No42c62.66$27 inWon+$36.076222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…d904backed No39c51.54$20 inWon+$31.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked Yes61c50.09$30 inLost-$30.361172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f5…9d27backed Yes44c45$20 inLost-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No30c43.51$13 inWon+$30.591455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62c8…2ccdbacked No61c41.22$25 inWon+$16.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No60c39.99$24 inWon+$161266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57f2…0e03backed Yes54c37$20 inLost-$19.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac5c…6e73backed Yes70c35.96$25 inLost-$251020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-63.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e8c…ad74backed No35c28.38$10 inWon+$18.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes73c27.4$20 inLost-$205219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a8…e937backed No38c26.58$10 inWon+$16.58862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ad7…3efdbacked Yes56c21.43$12 inLost-$12425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ff…b00abacked Yes66c18.11$12 inLost-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes56c18$10 inLost-$10.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.