Movies · resolved market
Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f0a906e6941c32550a0423c9e0fd0474464dc19617e51524d83feebad4d537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,103 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 52c | 735.84$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.33 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3e…e4bfbacked Yes | 48c | 237.3$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +189.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbe…6389backed Yes | 43c | 232.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…bd62backed Yes | 46c | 215.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…316cbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9203…a525backed Yes | 42c | 147.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed No | 55c | 134.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…16c4backed Yes | 54c | 127.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 41c | 123.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 54c | 113.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 58c | 102$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 53c | 100.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked No | 57c | 80.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 55c | 68.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…5312backed Yes | 42c | 61.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…b5d9backed Yes | 39c | 57.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 54c | 54.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8b…a9b8backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…a2afbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 59c | 31.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 41c | 31.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 48c | 31.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…1cefbacked No | 49c | 30.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked No | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 59c | 25.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…f932backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No | 61c | 24.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 23.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…c523backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 20.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a8…e937backed No | 62c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Alien" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ballet" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Charlie Kirk" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Dream Big" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ellison" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Elon" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Greenland" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Kylie" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Leo" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Middle East" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Netflix" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Peace" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Sex" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Shame" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ukraine" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "White House" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Will Smith" or "Punch" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Zionist" or "Zionism" be said at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.