Movies · resolved market
Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd6262e732ac122cde6e6cc8a567cc5db4a7fb55517b37a8844181081218381c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,902 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed No | 55c | 96.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…73bebacked Yes | 76c | 79.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…9d27backed Yes | 41c | 60.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 31c | 51.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…a2afbacked Yes | 60c | 41.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 31c | 36.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 31c | 33.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…65b2backed Yes | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 61c | 26.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…12f0backed Yes | 70c | 21.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 61c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…a886backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Alien" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ballet" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Charlie Kirk" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Dream Big" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ellison" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Elon" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Greenland" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Kylie" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Leo" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Middle East" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Netflix" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Peace" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Sex" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Shame" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ukraine" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "White House" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Will Smith" or "Punch" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Zionist" or "Zionism" be said at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.