TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Elon" be said at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,634 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca1e…75edbacked No64c99.99$64 inWon+$364344.2%19 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+99.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe5e…b57dbacked Yes36c90.11$32 inLost-$32540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306f…9ce8backed Yes37c53.42$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8f…d0debacked No69c50.46$35 inWon+$15.46650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x699d…4f7cbacked Yes36c33.33$12 inLost-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ce…65b2backed No66c28.53$19 inWon+$9.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7169…3ca6backed No78c27.26$21 inWon+$5.98560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No62c24.99$15 inWon+$9.52352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No62c22.79$14 inWon+$8.662755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed No63c22.57$14 inWon+$8.35825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.