TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,367 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d6c…d024backed No5c705.94$35 inLost-$35742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No4c600.91$26 inLost-$25.851455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c500$10 inLost-$10537.5%4 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No5c417.03$22 inLost-$22.12334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5eb…b51cbacked No13c343.96$45 inLost-$44.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf141…67b0backed No4c285.86$11 inLost-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18fe…34a8backed No14c261.5$37 inLost-$36.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9b…4368backed No11c252.8$28 inLost-$27.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5dd…dda7backed No7c171.22$12 inLost-$11.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…7da2backed No14c141.97$20 inLost-$20.344544.4%20 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24a8…e937backed No8c125$10 inLost-$10862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x604a…d5f8backed No10c100$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked No13c90$12 inLost-$11.9140%0 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.