TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Greenland" be said at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,265
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,276

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,265 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3859…7359backed Yes23c1,891$435 inLost-$434.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35d2…6698backed No77c1,220$939 inWon+$280.61030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed No77c671$517 inWon+$154.332835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-38.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2386…1722backed No74c194.28$144 inWon+$49.8560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes25c100$25 inLost-$254148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8445…f319backed Yes28c53.24$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked No70c49.94$35 inWon+$15.131172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c47.19$12 inLost-$12.4414337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb653…b87fbacked No73c27.3$20 inWon+$7.31650%8 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No73c19.85$14 inWon+$5.367969.6%55 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No69c14.64$10 inWon+$4.541637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.