Movies · resolved market
Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf741bf940fa3bd877be7c9689f54ccffa17cd5cad74c3a54236d908b20606d7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,105 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd68…cdd3backed Yes | 43c | 2,458$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 57c | 831$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed No | 57c | 828$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…6e3abacked No | 57c | 804$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 75c | 722.02$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 75c | 401.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 27c | 176.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 46c | 128.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 62c | 118.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b61…1a66backed Yes | 58c | 86.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 60c | 86.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 45c | 79.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb331…1786backed No | 67c | 72.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 26c | 64.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…6e73backed Yes | 46c | 54.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9add…5cccbacked Yes | 38c | 52.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…9ce8backed Yes | 39c | 50.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 64c | 45.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 28c | 45.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…6176backed No | 67c | 42.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6b…902bbacked Yes | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed No | 74c | 40.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 68c | 38.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…a2afbacked Yes | 44c | 33.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x767b…244abacked No | 74c | 33.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5a…2233backed No | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…1cefbacked No | 49c | 31.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 53c | 31.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 40c | 31.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb87b…443cbacked Yes | 38c | 31.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 34c | 31.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…bef3backed Yes | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24a8…e937backed Yes | 34c | 29.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 35c | 28.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…ce4bbacked Yes | 43c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…51a0backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…2f32backed Yes | 57c | 17.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…367abacked No | 71c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed No | 62c | 16.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Alien" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ballet" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Charlie Kirk" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Dream Big" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ellison" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Elon" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Greenland" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Kylie" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Leo" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Middle East" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Netflix" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Peace" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Sex" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Shame" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ukraine" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "White House" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Will Smith" or "Punch" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Zionist" or "Zionism" be said at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.