Movies · resolved market
Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07aaccfa1b2fa778fba9a2cc763af1692ddedb196564b60270db2bb3a747fdc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dd0…49d8backed No | 75c | 819.24$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 25c | 799.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 11c | 615$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 11c | 531$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 18c | 334.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 285.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 74c | 269.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 14c | 243.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 7c | 183.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked Yes | 20c | 171.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8fd8backed Yes | 30c | 164.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…ff66backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…f6ffbacked Yes | 21c | 146.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…f052backed No | 68c | 143.94$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 134.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed No | 80c | 125.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 120.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 20c | 100.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6b…902bbacked Yes | 27c | 92.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…6e73backed Yes | 29c | 86.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e8…ee0dbacked Yes | 29c | 85.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked No | 74c | 67.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…ca41backed Yes | 27c | 62.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…9ce8backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a7…c4acbacked Yes | 25c | 60.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a92…0616backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 57.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…77b2backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 22c | 53.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed No | 75c | 50.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…a886backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked No | 76c | 49.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…e529backed No | 70c | 43.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +325.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c87…6d0ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fda…751cbacked Yes | 29c | 34.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1483…7978backed Yes | 38c | 31.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 60c | 30.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 30.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cc…7ca5backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…c66bbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…fa17backed No | 72c | 24.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 22.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…639fbacked No | 73c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Alien" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ballet" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Charlie Kirk" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Dream Big" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ellison" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Elon" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Greenland" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Kylie" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Leo" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Middle East" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Netflix" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Peace" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Sex" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Shame" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ukraine" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "White House" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Will Smith" or "Punch" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Zionist" or "Zionism" be said at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.