TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Dream Big" be said at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,272
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,272 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e8e…8db8backed No52c284.89$149 inWon+$136.364663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes73c137.26$100 inLost-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-40.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cfc…0556backed Yes45c111.93$50 inLost-$5050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02dc…a212backed Yes43c108.89$47 inLost-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed No52c107.84$56 inWon+$51.692030%6 W · 14 L-4.6wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-39.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked No57c85.77$49 inWon+$37.174344.2%19 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+99.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x767b…244abacked Yes45c69.62$31 inLost-$31560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7982…86c4backed No58c59.99$34 inWon+$25.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37eb…42e1backed Yes26c58.04$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8162…6ffebacked No71c53.26$38 inWon+$15.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f6b…902bbacked Yes48c52.21$25 inLost-$2550%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes44c50$22 inLost-$2223130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No60c50$30 inWon+$2017540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes30c46.9$14 inLost-$14.1116015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No59c42.87$25 inWon+$17.764650%23 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x22c1…8cd6backed Yes39c36.98$14 inLost-$14.371827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1594…1766backed Yes44c32.96$15 inLost-$14.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee2…e71fbacked No64c30.95$20 inWon+$11.07633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No65c30$20 inWon+$10.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed No64c25.99$17 inWon+$9.23540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c25$10 inLost-$1087033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes40c25$10 inLost-$106222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No57c24.99$14 inWon+$10.759753.6%52 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No56c20.14$11 inWon+$8.862360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No72c17.95$13 inWon+$5.033046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.