Movies · resolved market

Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17a6c9551e27e535bef92b6430d5525b25642a32bdbb8f28791a831c011cc265

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,270 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb331…1786backed No	48c	2,247$1,081 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,166.11	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No	1c	934.94$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$921.41	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+61.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19be…f052backed Yes	49c	749.94$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.3	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed Yes	51c	671$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.21	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x184f…a48fbacked Yes	51c	659$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.09	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed No	49c	462$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.62	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-3.3wins	-0.12per pick	38cpaid	-38%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c1f…448fbacked No	61c	443.34$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.79	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2103…e296backed No	49c	441$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.91	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No	50c	440$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed Yes	68c	438.38$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.77	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11c6…e25ebacked No	49c	427$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.77	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-49%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No	39c	418.19$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.91	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No	46c	386.5$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.9	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…e47fbacked Yes	63c	317.18$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.23per pick	34cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c14…5783backed No	47c	256.01$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.01	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes	53c	220$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.2	47	34%16 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xceab…dce7backed Yes	55c	200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes	63c	192.06$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.16	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+16%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6c…d024backed No	37c	189.42$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.42	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes	61c	183.74$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.53	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No	39c	179.43$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.25	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-60%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3a0a…9c18backed Yes	59c	169.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f5d…1810backed Yes	59c	168.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	44c	168.49$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.15	111	29.7%33 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	36c	162.87$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.74	62	22.6%14 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9d…5fdabacked Yes	70c	143.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	60cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	52c	141.8$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes	74c	135.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	19.2%10 W · 42 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb26f…ebf7backed Yes	50c	124.45$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No	41c	124.14$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.3	167	41.9%70 W · 97 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes	58c	122.68$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.67	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a70…cba6backed Yes	61c	120.43$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-5.2wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5719…abbdbacked Yes	72c	110.78$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed No	39c	110.52$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.91	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb10c…6d2cbacked Yes	75c	105$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.70per pick	70cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8317…18e3backed Yes	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37fa…1136backed Yes	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked Yes	65c	100$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.24per pick	68cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ae5…f681backed Yes	58c	100$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No	39c	84.89$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.89	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No	38c	84$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.08	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+8.3wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No	39c	79.99$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.59	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked No	40c	75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	12	83.3%10 W · 2 L	+2.5wins	+0.21per pick	63cpaid	+146.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes	69c	72.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	63cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	37c	70.21$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.99	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab5b…316cbacked Yes	64c	67.66$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.29	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-3.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No	47c	65.65$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.06	195	32.8%64 W · 131 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe358…0822backed Yes	63c	63.03$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	38cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	62c	60$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	230	41.7%96 W · 134 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes	63c	54.5$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.34	175	40%70 W · 105 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78c3…7003backed No	51c	51.04$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.17	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4262…abaabacked Yes	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked Yes	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	60cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb143…e991backed Yes	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0372…4914backed Yes	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed Yes	50c	49.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	54cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c87…6d0ebacked Yes	65c	46.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac5c…6e73backed No	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.9wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes	60c	45$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.15	97	53.6%52 W · 45 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x434f…7d13backed Yes	62c	40.32$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae10…16c4backed Yes	64c	40$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f64…e464backed No	57c	38.75$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.66	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No	34c	38.01$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.12	90	21.1%19 W · 71 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8643…82a0backed No	47c	37.91$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.01	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bcb…b296backed Yes	57c	34.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-4.7wins	-0.27per pick	57cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5e00…2980backed Yes	64c	31.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8f…d0debacked Yes	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f5…9d27backed Yes	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f1…2bd0backed Yes	71c	28.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes	51c	23.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	44	25%11 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde4a…d152backed Yes	53c	22.59$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dec…c0ffbacked Yes	67c	22.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd53d…ec5bbacked Yes	59c	21.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e08…bef3backed Yes	70c	21.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.40per pick	60cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1607…df82backed Yes	52c	21.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b9…367abacked Yes	63c	20.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	68cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda49…6176backed Yes	53c	20.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	66cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86eb…5864backed Yes	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0278…bff4backed Yes	61c	18.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	25	72%18 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	67cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5297…9d23backed Yes	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?this page
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Alien" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Ballet" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars?No won
Will "Charlie Kirk" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Dream Big" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Ellison" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Elon" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Greenland" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Kylie" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Leo" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Middle East" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Netflix" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Peace" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "President" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Sex" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Shame" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "Ukraine" be said at the Oscars?No won
Will "White House" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Will Smith" or "Punch" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
Will "Zionist" or "Zionism" be said at the Oscars?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event