Movies · resolved market
Will "Ellison" be said at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcffa5981c24940eb32ad36de22b1893142b840477d6725f260ff0afbadd8640
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $728 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3d5…da54backed Yes | 33c | 42.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 58c | 33.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 61c | 25.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Ellison" be said at the Oscars?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Alien" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ballet" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Charlie Kirk" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Dream Big" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Elon" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Greenland" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Kylie" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Leo" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Middle East" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Netflix" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Peace" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Sex" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Shame" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ukraine" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "White House" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Will Smith" or "Punch" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Zionist" or "Zionism" be said at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.