Movies · resolved market
Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64c872e6135a26a70574bfd38397e5c20d22acd48c38cfde8d32e05413d70492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 59c | 1,857$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed No | 41c | 1,009$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed No | 41c | 946$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 41c | 925$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 39c | 786.77$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.24 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 52c | 750$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 25c | 726.96$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.05 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 59c | 565$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.35 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…e046backed Yes | 59c | 458$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 43c | 416.93$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.3 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 48c | 355$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 52c | 354$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.08 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 52c | 350$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 48c | 349$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 61c | 304.76$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.93 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…e47fbacked Yes | 64c | 297.93$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 48c | 261$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.72 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed No | 48c | 245$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 48c | 244$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 30c | 237.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6c…d024backed No | 40c | 201.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 56c | 197$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…c55fbacked Yes | 64c | 155.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 34c | 141.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 39c | 139.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…0e38backed No | 39c | 135$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed Yes | 62c | 120.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 61c | 118.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked No | 62c | 116.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +287.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…b71ebacked Yes | 67c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…bd62backed Yes | 57c | 103.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…89babacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 46c | 97.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 52c | 96.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 55c | 90.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…9d27backed Yes | 57c | 87.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…316cbacked Yes | 60c | 87.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…f7e3backed Yes | 66c | 83.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 82.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 64c | 78.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 57c | 66.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 54c | 64.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 36c | 62.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…a9a9backed Yes | 65c | 61.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f64…e464backed No | 40c | 59.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9295…6ff9backed Yes | 65c | 58.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 63c | 53.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 38c | 51.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…84fdbacked No | 39c | 51.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked Yes | 59c | 50.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e4…1660backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 44c | 47.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa829…172abacked Yes | 65c | 45.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…6e73backed No | 57c | 45.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…ac68backed No | 36c | 44.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1380…1cbabacked No | 46c | 43.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 41.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…8967backed Yes | 60c | 41.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0d83backed Yes | 74c | 40.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0372…4914backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…c523backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10c…6d2cbacked Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Yes | 61c | 37.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 35.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…cb96backed No | 38c | 32.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…8ea2backed Yes | 62c | 32.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…b5d9backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 64c | 31.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…c092backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 41c | 30.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8723…3ce3backed Yes | 64c | 30.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…e2e9backed Yes | 67c | 30.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed No | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…b935backed Yes | 61c | 29.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…b87fbacked No | 52c | 28.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 44c | 27.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 41c | 26.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…bd6ebacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…ce4bbacked Yes | 63c | 23.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b1…f987backed Yes | 62c | 23.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…c712backed Yes | 67c | 22.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8f…d0debacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb162…3b28backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 62c | 20.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbe…6389backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 54c | 19.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x41a8…ca26backed Yes | 63c | 18.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9203…a525backed Yes | 60c | 17.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Alien" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ballet" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Charlie Kirk" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Dream Big" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ellison" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Elon" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Greenland" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Kylie" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Leo" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Middle East" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Netflix" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Peace" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Sex" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Shame" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Ukraine" be said at the Oscars?No won
- Will "White House" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Will Smith" or "Punch" be said at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Zionist" or "Zionism" be said at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.