TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x061c…8b9a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 52 out of 100; worst Tweets at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT2733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$29
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$44
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.3
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$41.04
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.5
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.08
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.9
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.51
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.23
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.74
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+400%+$73.6
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$25.32
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$60.78
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.79
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.33
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.5
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.47
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+423.6%+$74.36
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$68
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+228.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+86%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will France be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$39.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskovabacked Linda Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$240.26
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.