Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3cf91c1030ee2698d96f14fe922454e12e6069e2015a10524879c365a5a3810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 0c | 21,550$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 7,973$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,507$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.95 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 29c | 639.93$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.46 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 23c | 500.25$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.64 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 34c | 484.37$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.23 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 79c | 446.87$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.95 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 65c | 335.47$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 75c | 333$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 305.54$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 51c | 297.55$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.68 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…98c0backed Yes | 18c | 273.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…36efbacked No | 79c | 250.59$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 205$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 55c | 199.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 57c | 192.19$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 190.6$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 190.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…8b9abacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 17c | 157.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 142.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 61c | 137.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 49c | 135.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…5c9dbacked Yes | 37c | 134.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed No | 77c | 129.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed Yes | 16c | 124.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 78c | 113.43$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 107$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…8a17backed Yes | 15c | 102.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6d…5671backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 93.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 71c | 90.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…be73backed Yes | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74c…cf72backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 22c | 61.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed No | 76c | 61.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 58.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…5e45backed Yes | 55c | 56.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53f…e061backed Yes | 56c | 50.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…fc4cbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…82fabacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72cd…ba23backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…2edbbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 49.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 41c | 49.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…a07abacked Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…79c4backed Yes | 32c | 44.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…86e9backed Yes | 50c | 40.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…c225backed Yes | 57c | 37.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 52c | 36.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b8…1994backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 29.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…717dbacked No | 70c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.