TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7500…567fbacked Yes11c3,349$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,964.336113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes67c1,382$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.3566222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes48c1,279$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.3157222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed No61c1,240$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.585174.5%38 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes42c1,161$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.0112232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes45c852.66$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+62.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes35c812.56$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.2562539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes10c804.32$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.292,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No30c795.29$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.7510330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22ce…7f27backed No54c706.3$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes50c698.71$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.9922926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes27c689.23$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.5724732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes8c452.87$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.875598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed No75c398.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009728.9%28 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4873…b9c2backed Yes16c350$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.451428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes21c340$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.4513038.5%50 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No36c337.43$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1922160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes45c330.23$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.435228.8%15 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No67c328.95$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.138342.2%35 W · 48 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes16c312.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.7510924.8%27 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes17c310.25$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.351128%9 W · 103 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55b9…b6a8backed Yes71c309.11$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.261225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72cb…0f84backed No32c309.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes19c298.75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.3742719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No46c294.56$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5315455.2%85 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No45c291.61$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2416750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a36…2450backed No67c279.21$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes14c264.08$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.4112216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No66c259.25$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9142628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes26c250$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.810547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd74c…cf72backed No80c225.79$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.59666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No55c223.85$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.143452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c222$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7530955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes25c221$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.753815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No50c218.61$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.958148.1%39 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No42c207.9$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.31957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c200$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.64916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes22c179.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.8548310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No18c159.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8310052%52 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No34c157.45$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0310145.5%46 W · 55 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes9c154.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.71,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c150.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1121857.8%126 W · 92 L+0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78d7…291dbacked No22c150.68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+80.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No53c149.68$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.612763%17 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes18c145.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.5813511.9%16 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes27c143.56$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7937830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e47…60aebacked No67c140.04$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba70…b6c7backed Yes9c139.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.672528%7 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No37c118.2$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7810216.7%17 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25b2…3b9ebacked Yes35c118.09$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c113.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.362,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No29c108$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5462713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9910024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ba8…23a6backed No30c82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.62733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca42…ce9abacked No23c81.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes61c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5620532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc449…bb3fbacked Yes31c70.82$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No53c70.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1651018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xd17a…ffcabacked No30c66.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa307…5174backed Yes19c62.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+431.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.519654.2%52 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf67d…2de1backed No30c58.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb719…c1e1backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+91.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3743027%116 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb764…51ddbacked No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.97833.3%26 W · 52 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-33.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes30c49.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.619933.2%66 W · 133 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017e…be52backed Yes68c48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.231650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95e4…e4e3backed No42c47.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes58c47.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.032045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes32c46.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.739518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1eb8…b468backed Yes53c44.88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.132142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae6b…51f6backed Yes70c44.27$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.44837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No68c40.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.432755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38c…1ee8backed Yes75c39.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48a0…f156backed No51c38.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a5…ed20backed Yes61c32.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c32.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9928723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbfe8…6d0abacked No48c31.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.851338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae1b…8051backed No52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5bb4…f3a4backed Yes61c29.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.276100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf04b…4ba3backed No65c22.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c60…2d5bbacked No59c20.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d2…8dacbacked Yes57c20.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b54…76eabacked Yes64c19.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.86560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e6…63ebbacked Yes80c17.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes71c16.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8811050%55 W · 55 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbea9…1e9abacked No69c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.