Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5335b7e88cdf73f5d001ba36c4e949a5dcb8b510470eb594c5ef4023ca1fdf65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 1c | 10,249$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 26c | 4,350$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.47 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,280$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…3348backed Yes | 2c | 1,330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 59c | 1,200$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.17 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 64c | 835.17$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.65 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 729.76$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.29 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 35c | 551.17$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.01 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 27c | 549.93$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1b…8051backed No | 60c | 513.81$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 431.33$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 418.35$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.05 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 14c | 415.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 13c | 385.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked No | 34c | 364.46$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 11c | 355.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 54c | 272.49$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…98c0backed No | 66c | 265.36$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed Yes | 10c | 250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 27c | 238.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 230.02$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 75c | 229.71$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 71c | 207.9$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 196$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 181.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 181$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 19c | 179.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 170.42$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 152.45$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 149.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 149.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 28c | 142.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 136.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 57c | 136.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…60aebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…da1fbacked No | 79c | 132.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 34c | 128.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 9c | 126.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 10c | 117.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 15c | 114.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 21c | 114.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 24c | 113.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked No | 70c | 111.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…ed05backed Yes | 30c | 105.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 55c | 101.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8f…2819backed Yes | 30c | 99.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 22c | 98.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…0432backed Yes | 24c | 83.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…23a6backed No | 30c | 82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6d…5671backed Yes | 14c | 80.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…b6c7backed Yes | 21c | 80.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1d…8721backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…ef86backed No | 79c | 75.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 71.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…f58bbacked Yes | 16c | 67.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…e651backed No | 33c | 65.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…c555backed No | 75c | 45.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…c302backed Yes | 65c | 41.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc685…0e9fbacked Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 45c | 38.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…fe5dbacked No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…8034backed Yes | 64c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…c92bbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…15cebacked No | 80c | 27.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…9a9fbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…bff5backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.