Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaacfef1334726764d2f4a833372e10a3981dcd97c110bf9bb02e4878f83d5c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 0c | 25,602$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 0c | 10,485$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…c5b3backed Yes | 0c | 7,625$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 6,511$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…55a5backed Yes | 0c | 4,202$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f7…1611backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 2,029$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,830$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 68 | 8.8%6 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,744$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,596$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 2c | 849.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…5c9dbacked Yes | 1c | 798.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…2657backed Yes | 3c | 584.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 21c | 579.27$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.57 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed No | 73c | 327.08$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 78c | 270.17$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 250.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…98c0backed Yes | 21c | 238.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 34c | 194.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked Yes | 19c | 160.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +188.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed Yes | 15c | 130.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 75c | 116.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 16c | 112.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf45…8edcbacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 98.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 28c | 75.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…b468backed Yes | 28c | 71.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 25c | 69.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 61.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 53.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…8171backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 21c | 49.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…6bbabacked Yes | 23c | 42.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 26.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6189…d6ebbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 76c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 69c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed No | 71c | 14.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.