Movies · resolved market
Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x604dc4df290145ae3e259548bfdd1f7fbdc91696d698db7a396487fbe3823cf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,470 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 32c | 1,822$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.66 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 73c | 1,332$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Yes | 33c | 1,159$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +219.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.94 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 23c | 995.5$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.07 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 27c | 906$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked Yes | 27c | 886$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd28a…fc48backed Yes | 31c | 826.6$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 70c | 786$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.74 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 20c | 784.81$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.57 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 69c | 699.3$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.51 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 29c | 656.43$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed No | 69c | 638$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.22 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 70c | 614$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.3 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 69c | 536$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.84 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 39c | 506$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.66 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed No | 61c | 505$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 477.74$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.74 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed No | 73c | 460$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d59…2589backed Yes | 32c | 434.36$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 29c | 424.36$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.71 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 417.21$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.38 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 68c | 415.5$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.49 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 69c | 400.09$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.06 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes | 28c | 385$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 26c | 375.93$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.79 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked No | 78c | 368$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.04 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes | 22c | 368$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.04 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1055…7dd4backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 67c | 319.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 28c | 318$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.13 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 302.37$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.62 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 51c | 300$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.37 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 294.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.11 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 61c | 285$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.85 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 39c | 285$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 69c | 274$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 31c | 274$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 268.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.4 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 27c | 268$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.72 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c73dbacked Yes | 39c | 257.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 31c | 256$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 254.25$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.38 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 67c | 247.68$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.95 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 31c | 247$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee2…d6fdbacked Yes | 23c | 215.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 28c | 209.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fb…7f7bbacked Yes | 38c | 201.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes | 32c | 201.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…d7bcbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 62c | 197$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…e614backed Yes | 25c | 195.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…f31cbacked Yes | 43c | 191$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb34…2b09backed Yes | 32c | 189.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff5…86ddbacked Yes | 43c | 188.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 75c | 179.53$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.29 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…af78backed Yes | 26c | 177.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 17c | 175.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.96 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccfd…534abacked Yes | 43c | 175$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…4e45backed Yes | 39c | 172.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…d14ebacked Yes | 30c | 166.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 71c | 162.84$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…03e0backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 145.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d98…8b32backed Yes | 63c | 137.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 31c | 135$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…2562backed Yes | 59c | 135$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ad…8773backed Yes | 32c | 132$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 15c | 131.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.02 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 21c | 130.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 18c | 130$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bb…67cdbacked Yes | 23c | 128.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +329%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…3a75backed Yes | 28c | 127$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +151%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…e0c3backed Yes | 23c | 126.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 34c | 119.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 39c | 117$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…8b9abacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…681cbacked Yes | 24c | 111$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +322.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 110.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…f543backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Yes | 23c | 106.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…6446backed No | 57c | 102$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 60c | 101.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 38c | 100.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09a…5cb8backed Yes | 29c | 99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…ec47backed No | 57c | 98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d3…a0e9backed Yes | 24c | 97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 96.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…69c9backed No | 57c | 96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4819…abcebacked Yes | 24c | 92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "Sinners" win 10 or more awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 8 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 9 awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.