TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,470 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes32c1,822$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.6617751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked No73c1,332$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.361947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55fd…2c99backed Yes33c1,159$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.59475%3 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick23cpaid+219.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No70c1,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.942937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes23c995.5$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.0712938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc315…6411backed Yes27c906$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.38955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick34cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7238…e52dbacked Yes27c886$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.781154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+94.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd28a…fc48backed Yes31c826.6$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.231136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked No70c786$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.743815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-70.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes20c784.81$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.5717821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No69c699.3$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.514827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes29c656.43$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.48742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed No69c638$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.22110%0 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No70c614$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.326641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No69c536$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.8419440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed Yes39c506$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.662050%10 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x981e…d368backed No61c505$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.051060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c477.74$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.7423130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ff7…a220backed No73c460$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-42.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d59…2589backed Yes32c434.36$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.37616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes29c424.36$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.714316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No48c417.21$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3816741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No68c415.5$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.4923041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked No69c400.09$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.062245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes28c385$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes26c375.93$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.7923741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked No78c368$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.041855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes22c368$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.041080%8 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+90.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1055…7dd4backed Yes30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.33540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No67c319.99$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes28c318$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.1318444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c302.37$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6236538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No51c300$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.378752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes25c294.96$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.111,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed No61c285$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.851428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes39c285$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.853751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2b…f025backed No69c274$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.06933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed Yes31c274$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.061030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes30c268.82$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.47020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes27c268$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.7234651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3959…c73dbacked Yes39c257.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a1…8919backed Yes31c256$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.64922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No67c254.25$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3815641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes18c250$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2052441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed No67c247.68$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.952944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked Yes31c247$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.43955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ee2…d6fdbacked Yes23c215.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes28c209.81$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.86933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4fb…7f7bbacked Yes38c201.13$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.3933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes32c201.01$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.011136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55f6…d7bcbacked Yes25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No62c197$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6424634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba6…e614backed Yes25c195.42$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.93540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes13c192.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.317839.7%31 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes13c192.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.3115739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72de…f31cbacked Yes43c191$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb34…2b09backed Yes32c189.73$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.731225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff5…86ddbacked Yes43c188.88$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes28c180$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.61225%3 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No75c179.53$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.297936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f3…af78backed Yes26c177.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.21241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed Yes17c175.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.964829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccfd…534abacked Yes43c175$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0986…4e45backed Yes39c172.91$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa627…d14ebacked Yes30c166.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No71c162.84$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5410244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f7b…03e0backed No78c150$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11740%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c145.19$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5148414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3d98…8b32backed Yes63c137.48$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.45771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick45cpaid+75.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b79…360fbacked Yes31c135$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.151471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+42.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8a…2562backed Yes59c135$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.65580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ad…8773backed Yes32c132$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes15c131.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.027735.1%27 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes21c130.83$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.872516%4 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes18c130$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.628528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3bb…67cdbacked Yes23c128.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+329%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18dc…3a75backed Yes28c127$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+151%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d16…e0c3backed Yes23c126.09$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+98.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes34c119.08$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.211118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes39c117$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x061c…8b9abacked Yes27c111.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+86%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb7…681cbacked Yes24c111$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+322.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No37c110.18$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0616015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x440d…f543backed Yes27c110$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Yes23c106.37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.91911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes33c106.06$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0626431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed7…6446backed No57c102$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aab…cf43backed No60c101.81$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.362544%11 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes38c100.39$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.433545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797241.7%30 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa09a…5cb8backed Yes29c99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.29580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+51.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa1c…ec47backed No57c98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d3…a0e9backed Yes24c97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No66c96.69$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7120841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0027…69c9backed No57c96$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4819…abcebacked Yes24c92$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.