Movies · resolved market
Will "Sinners" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad8e66948595968c5eb29fbda0c805ea53a0f45e00310f07b10c7e7681027c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,191 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 15c | 1,469$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 15c | 1,424$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed Yes | 13c | 1,009$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28a…fc48backed Yes | 24c | 904.01$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 24c | 783.31$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.11 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 12c | 707$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf36c…6b40backed Yes | 29c | 682.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 72c | 637$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.43 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d59…2589backed Yes | 29c | 599.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 11c | 521$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 20c | 506.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b8…b240backed Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 13c | 461$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 14c | 460$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…b027backed Yes | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 72c | 448.08$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.46 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked Yes | 12c | 426$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 71c | 410.22$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…d45cbacked Yes | 28c | 379.68$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb34…2b09backed Yes | 30c | 368.54$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes | 12c | 368$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 12c | 344$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 3c | 332.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 25c | 318.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 260.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 247.47$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 12c | 230.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 218.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 208.19$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ff…9552backed Yes | 29c | 203.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed No | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 13c | 184$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…d14ebacked Yes | 29c | 170.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fb…7f7bbacked Yes | 14c | 163.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7450…b5acbacked Yes | 29c | 161.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 150.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 11c | 145.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 144.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed Yes | 28c | 141$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…b728backed Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 16c | 134.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 13c | 129.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…ae91backed Yes | 28c | 129$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 124.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 122.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…669ebacked Yes | 14c | 108.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82b…c85dbacked Yes | 28c | 108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 30c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…e614backed Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 103.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 14c | 100.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee2…d6fdbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96d…11b0backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…f28bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b7…d0e2backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 27c | 83.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 23c | 83.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 23c | 83.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…af78backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…8b6ebacked Yes | 15c | 71.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…0e43backed Yes | 33c | 59.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40b…8471backed Yes | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…8108backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 79c | 51.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…4e28backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x323a…5797backed No | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 26c | 46.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…67b0backed Yes | 26c | 45.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab4…468cbacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd584…cce2backed Yes | 25c | 43.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d4…3df1backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…1e09backed No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc21…f03cbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4646…04d9backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 20.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b9…4158backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 80c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…3b47backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…e951backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "Sinners" win 10 or more awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 8 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 9 awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.