Movies · resolved market
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8af24566089a5b7263bc5dfcbfe29b136a02cc08c0d93ca6b56a21689dcc33b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,956 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 20c | 5,780$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 79c | 3,937$3,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.89 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed No | 15c | 2,014$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 60c | 2,000$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 46c | 1,484$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.33 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…7f00backed No | 18c | 1,481$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 27c | 1,474$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.77 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed No | 78c | 1,408$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…d7bcbacked Yes | 30c | 1,312$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 62c | 1,201$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked No | 80c | 1,132$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Yes | 18c | 1,123$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +219.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…0cd8backed Yes | 18c | 1,022$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…4e45backed Yes | 76c | 957.11$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 48c | 893$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 22c | 823.75$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.57 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…a65dbacked Yes | 55c | 805.61$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 27c | 798.26$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.73 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…57e8backed No | 77c | 773$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 60c | 718.81$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 53c | 702.56$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.37 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 57c | 682.73$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 77c | 643$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 79c | 621.6$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 619.69$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.42 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 52c | 619$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 23c | 605$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 18c | 575$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…e614backed Yes | 20c | 526.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 56c | 523.71$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.39 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 72c | 515.81$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.41 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2009…903ebacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d59…2589backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes | 45c | 451$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked No | 55c | 451$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes | 14c | 417.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 46c | 410$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked No | 54c | 410$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 25c | 406.85$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 28c | 396.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 75c | 383.55$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 23c | 381$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 43c | 371.27$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.8 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 79c | 366$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 21c | 366$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…a0b7backed Yes | 47c | 359.35$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…1613backed Yes | 36c | 358.58$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…62f8backed No | 56c | 356.87$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked No | 41c | 354.08$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…8bd5backed Yes | 53c | 338.4$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 23c | 330.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked No | 68c | 328$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 32c | 328$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 22c | 289.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…5a09backed Yes | 51c | 280$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…5cf4backed Yes | 71c | 278.86$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 63c | 276.16$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 52c | 274$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 23c | 263$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 254.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28a…fc48backed No | 64c | 250.23$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…db52backed No | 61c | 244.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…cc96backed No | 54c | 242.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 29c | 240.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 56c | 239.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.86 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 223.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19e…b2edbacked No | 56c | 215.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 65c | 215.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 45c | 214.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed No | 61c | 210.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…aaf8backed Yes | 50c | 210.02$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67e…3b73backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…e29dbacked Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7153…8ff9backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…d560backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…4bc5backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…6dbebacked Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…0cd8backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…939cbacked Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d8…7c5abacked Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…9628backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…6e8dbacked Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2d…5ef3backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9574…b7a9backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…2fdfbacked Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0745…6f32backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45bd…4071backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…7e21backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…8562backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c9…b869backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334c…c4f0backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…f693backed Yes | 50c | 210$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cae…8d06backed Yes | 50c | 210$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…df68backed Yes | 50c | 210$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…f712backed No | 51c | 210$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283a…3d8dbacked No | 51c | 210$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "Sinners" win 10 or more awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 8 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sinners" win exactly 9 awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.