TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,956 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes20c5,780$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.72626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No79c3,937$3,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.8917751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…c1c4backed No15c2,014$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.841421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No60c2,000$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x115a…e4a6backed Yes46c1,484$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.33263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1d…7f00backed No18c1,481$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+270.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No27c1,474$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.7728528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed No78c1,408$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x55f6…d7bcbacked Yes30c1,312$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No62c1,201$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.292445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked No80c1,132$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.62742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55fd…2c99backed Yes18c1,123$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205475%3 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick23cpaid+219.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3d0…0cd8backed Yes18c1,022$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0986…4e45backed Yes76c957.11$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes48c893$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.641127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes22c823.75$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5712938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x737c…a65dbacked Yes55c805.61$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.85825%2 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-68.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No27c798.26$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.732171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54ae…57e8backed No77c773$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked No60c718.81$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.57580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No53c702.56$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.3716741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes57c682.73$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3904544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0aec…fdafbacked No77c643$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.891258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No79c621.6$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.9523041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No62c619.69$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.428752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a8…0c57backed No52c619$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.121040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed Yes23c605$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed Yes18c575$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ba6…e614backed Yes20c526.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.12540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No56c523.71$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.394316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No72c515.81$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.411650%8 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2009…903ebacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceab…dce7backed Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10560%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d59…2589backed Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes45c451$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.95540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+90.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x374b…9a1fbacked No55c451$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.95633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes14c417.54$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.46728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-62.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8727…83d7backed Yes46c410$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.61145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c9…99aabacked No54c410$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes25c406.85$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1312539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes28c396.6$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.381118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No75c383.55$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.823741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes23c381$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.631323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes43c371.27$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.848414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1220…741abacked No79c366$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.861741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed Yes21c366$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.86742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5147…a0b7backed Yes47c359.35$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1be…1613backed Yes36c358.58$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83f6…62f8backed No56c356.87$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.38475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebd…e0cabacked No41c354.08$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1b…8bd5backed Yes53c338.4$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.21816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes23c330.28$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5310244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked No68c328$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.961656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+58.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed Yes32c328$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes22c289.52$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf085…5a09backed Yes51c280$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa43a…5cf4backed Yes71c278.86$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No63c276.16$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1615739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed No52c274$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.521040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…75b7backed Yes23c263$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.49837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes23c254.29$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.247020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd28a…fc48backed No64c250.23$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.721136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf808…6e99backed Yes34c250$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafce…db52backed No61c244.93$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.931040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4999…cc96backed No54c242.2$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.211711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes29c240.75$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed No56c239.98$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8613321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes33c223.4$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6120841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked Yes23c220$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.62832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19e…b2edbacked No56c215.96$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No65c215.2$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No45c214.1$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4713337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed No61c210.64$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.15875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaffe…aaf8backed Yes50c210.02$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd67e…3b73backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ce…e29dbacked Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7153…8ff9backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8614…d560backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e0…4bc5backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94fa…6dbebacked Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff20…0cd8backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…939cbacked Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d8…7c5abacked Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9179…9628backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf629…6e8dbacked Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2d…5ef3backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9574…b7a9backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d5…2fdfbacked Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0745…6f32backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45bd…4071backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa6…7e21backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb72d…8562backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72c9…b869backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x334c…c4f0backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8138…f693backed Yes50c210$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cae…8d06backed Yes50c210$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe660…df68backed Yes50c210$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x691f…f712backed No51c210$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x283a…3d8dbacked No51c210$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.