TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x737c…a65d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
125
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Movies at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT3253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.4
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.33
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$94.9
Wizards vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$229
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$21.2
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+25%+$40
Nuggets vs. Knicksbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$43
Pelicans vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+61.3%+$19
Jazz vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$10.5
Kings vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+108.3%+$41.59
Timberwolves vs. Grizzliesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25%+$10
Pelicans vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$9.6
Hawks vs. Pacersbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.7
Clippers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+117.4%+$21.6
Nets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+42.9%+$12
Trail Blazers vs. Wizardsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$65
Trail Blazers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+40.8%+$29
Lakers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$93.6
Thunder vs. Heatbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$79.5
Wizards vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+33.3%+$37.5
Suns vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$52
Hornets vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+38.4%+$27.75
Hornets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$597Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$596.97
Thunder vs. Rocketsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+53.8%+$140
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2875%21 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$73.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$122
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+136.4%+$750
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$76
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$60
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$86
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+44%+$116.16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$48
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$17.49
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$65
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+88.7%+$47
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+47.1%+$12.8
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+56.3%+$36
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$21.43
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+78.6%+$22
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+42.9%+$15
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$48.38
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+100%+$25
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$70.99
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+40.8%+$7.25
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+38.9%+$8.4
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST1450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+108.3%+$78
Rashid Shaheed: Receiving Yards O/U 22.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+101%+$80.4
Kenneth Walker III: Rushing Yards O/U 80.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+170.3%+$63
Drake Maye: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+61.3%+$12.93
TreVeyon Henderson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$153.42
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+92.3%+$192
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+98.1%+$217.67
Will Post Malone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 120 and 130 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$219.5
Big Game: National Anthem O/U 119.5 secondsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$63
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$25
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$72
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+84.8%+$26.95
All 14 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$18.56
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+86.3%+$69.5
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$46
Will Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo record the most gold medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+26.6%+$13.7
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+354.5%+$78
Will Great Britain win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$48.6
Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+69.5%+$21.73
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Latviabacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$71
Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+33.3%+$49.79
Will Jutta Leerdam (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+69.5%+$41
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-68.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$439.85
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$156
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$49.1
Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.15
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$8
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.4
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.2
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$6.74
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+67.2%+$47.44
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$25.05
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+166.7%+$83.33
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$37
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 7 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+249.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+249.5%+$66.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.