TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Knicks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Pacers, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,803,226
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,587,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,803,226 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Pacers17c1,104,280$186,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918,154.4787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8764…604abacked Pacers18c831,819$149,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681,988.337266.7%48 W · 24 L+14.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+47%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Knicks65c631,937$408,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408,236.551,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Pacers18c150,000$27,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123,00032653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Pacers15c130,000$19,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,199.9859653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f10…76b3backed Knicks66c108,864$72,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,348.221855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Pacers39c71,753$27,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,843.0293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks62c70,373$43,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,538.145,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Pacers17c70,000$11,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,099.9940446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Pacers15c55,000$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,50045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Pacers16c50,005$8,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,854.0923245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Knicks2c48,299$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.581,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Pacers16c47,500$7,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,074.9451844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x938f…f13fbacked Pacers17c40,032$6,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,226.45349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Pacers18c40,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,799.9937539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pacers15c37,345$5,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,743.181,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Knicks53c36,792$19,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,470.831,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Knicks45c35,430$16,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,115.481,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Knicks38c29,818$11,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,433.6783039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Knicks63c25,448$15,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,937.1148956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Pacers16c25,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,000.1631445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d0…a31bbacked Pacers16c25,000$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,9004235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Pacers15c25,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,249.8428742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98cd…61f9backed Pacers35c21,592$7,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,963.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+183%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Knicks16c21,493$3,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,345.2681529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Knicks7c20,682$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.8939744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Pacers25c19,256$4,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,408.5116848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Pacers28c18,562$5,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,341.2337557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Knicks13c18,398$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.822,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Pacers15c16,999$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,449.5547028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Pacers16c15,724$2,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,195.041,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Knicks74c15,458$11,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,48738046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Pacers17c15,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,4505156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Pacers18c14,999$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,299.1315247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Knicks66c14,901$9,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,835.4466646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Pacers16c14,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,759.999828.6%28 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Knicks40c13,891$5,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,510.493,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Knicks66c13,665$9,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,048.7922458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Pacers39c13,464$5,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,239.882,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Knicks78c12,840$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd915…1d54backed Pacers16c12,400$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,415.782965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Pacers25c12,388$3,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,271.361939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pacers40c11,970$4,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,211.263,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Pacers26c11,609$3,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,547.2438540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks70c11,340$7,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,950.64,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Knicks23c11,123$2,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,522.7689444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7f…9550backed Pacers33c11,028$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,348.171850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers16c10,100$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,433.491,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Pacers16c10,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,40095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d8…9762backed Knicks13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+76.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Knicks65c9,900$6,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,434.9810239.2%40 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Pacers21c9,753$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,753.1576746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x714a…9dacbacked Pacers18c9,306$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,630.563551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Pacers15c8,577$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,290.6935450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed Knicks72c8,446$6,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,081.28742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Pacers36c8,333$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,333.3334456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Pacers17c8,000$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,67032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Pacers15c7,100$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,034.8813148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabce…0817backed Pacers16c6,600$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,543.971154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6863…79fbbacked Knicks79c6,339$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L-3.4wins-0.30per pick76cpaid-40.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks55c6,327$3,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,505.933,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50dc…ed37backed Knicks72c6,224$4,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4861546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Pacers18c5,932$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,835.6726640.2%107 W · 159 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe458…3436backed Pacers17c5,882$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,882.351546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02c…7852backed Knicks60c5,804$3,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,488.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ad…9e2bbacked Pacers16c5,625$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Knicks55c5,622$3,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.391,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Knicks61c5,595$3,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,436.813435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Pacers42c5,490$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,174.4822159.7%132 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Knicks54c5,480$2,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,932.1625945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Knicks25c5,430$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.4814533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdab7…24ecbacked Pacers61c5,110$3,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.816065%104 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Pacers16c5,005$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,194.0158740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3730…3226backed Pacers16c5,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Pacers16c5,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.9921951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Pacers18c5,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,099.936144.3%27 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pacers25c4,991$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,742.921,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Pacers16c4,800$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,031.939054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x960e…77d6backed Knicks65c4,756$3,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0763953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Pacers14c4,569$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,928.481,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Pacers25c4,444$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3336636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Pacers16c4,443$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,731.8755346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Pacers17c4,418$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,667.9848938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8126…9d18backed Pacers18c4,380$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,591.64953.1%26 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Knicks3c4,375$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8429810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc532…d78ebacked Pacers16c4,375$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,675250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+212.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Pacers47c4,338$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,293.5948845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f6c…b40cbacked Pacers17c4,280$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,552.41675%12 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+96.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked Pacers41c4,166$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,476.7812524.8%31 W · 94 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Pacers17c4,130$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,444.941832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Knicks51c4,121$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10835650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Pacers15c4,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,40079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d3…c5afbacked Pacers20c4,000$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1955347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae82…ebf1backed Pacers17c4,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3201520%3 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Pacers16c4,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,36023348.1%112 W · 121 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Pacers17c4,000$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.4743348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc471…abe0backed Knicks63c3,912$2,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,445.85837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick64cpaid-51.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fec…3572backed Knicks69c3,905$2,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,711.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Knicks34c3,879$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3101,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Pacers16c3,700$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,10858449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.