TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Knicks, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,984,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,001,878

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,984,399 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 429 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Pacers50c484,769$242,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242,039.772,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Knicks50c453,927$227,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227,630.7547848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Pacers52c426,121$220,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205,270.7287451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Pacers51c297,660$151,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146,111.5187144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Knicks50c287,364$142,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,342.631,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Knicks48c200,000$96,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,0002,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe39d…e3dcbacked Knicks50c200,000$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pacers50c145,602$72,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,801.021,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pacers49c103,727$50,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,900.771,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Knicks48c100,000$48,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,999.8326253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Knicks49c50,000$24,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,50048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Pacers52c40,000$20,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,20051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed Knicks49c31,429$15,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,4007552%39 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d13…c3dcbacked Knicks0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Knicks48c30,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,40051844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Pacers55c30,000$16,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,499.9543148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Knicks48c25,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00011252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Pacers51c21,896$11,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,790.2537557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Knicks51c20,204$10,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,304.0860351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers49c15,780$7,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,975.634,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Pacers51c13,195$6,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,494.0544352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Knicks48c12,403$5,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,953.277946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks49c11,823$5,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,827.59,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Knicks50c11,070$5,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,480.170246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Knicks50c10,406$5,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20324053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1c2…1a39backed Knicks0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x221d…e800backed Knicks49c9,904$4,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,853.041464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Knicks48c9,147$4,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,390.4240350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Pacers51c7,909$4,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,895.7987750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Knicks45c6,667$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Knicks56c6,297$3,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,513.5385742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Knicks50c6,255$3,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,107.722,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Knicks52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12013954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Knicks49c5,852$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,887.8626949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks45c5,607$2,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,522.693,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc60e…088cbacked Knicks50c4,750$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3751070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Knicks49c4,500$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20515349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6559…a9b7backed Knicks49c4,373$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,142.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Knicks48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Knicks52c4,100$2,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,13225945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Knicks50c4,012$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00611351.3%58 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Knicks48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92033945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Knicks45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8758…01e0backed Knicks52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0803348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Pacers51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.9943348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Pacers52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.9919747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Knicks53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.9924151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Knicks51c3,522$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.041,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Knicks50c3,151$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.2859140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Knicks52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5601,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Knicks51c2,746$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.5314254.9%78 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks46c2,636$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.674,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Knicks49c2,506$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22843453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Knicks52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Knicks49c2,400$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17633146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Pacers51c2,353$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.9465750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed Knicks47c2,300$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0902657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pacers49c2,231$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.661,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Knicks45c2,184$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.956646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Knicks49c2,020$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00038946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Pacers52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Knicks53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06048957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Knicks50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016442.1%69 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fba…1404backed Knicks49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98011450%57 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Pacers49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.991,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa392…1415backed Knicks51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9514245.1%64 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Pacers51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7812051.7%62 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Knicks52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016042.5%68 W · 92 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a33…d0e2backed Pacers52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.085468.5%37 W · 17 L+9.4wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+30%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Knicks49c1,690$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.333,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Knicks50c1,650$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.173,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Knicks48c1,545$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e46…35efbacked Knicks53c1,486$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.683850%19 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf24b…d4cebacked Pacers53c1,458$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.125448.1%26 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks49c1,440$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.66,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Knicks53c1,269$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66840451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Knicks49c1,224$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60031551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Knicks49c1,143$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.072,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Pacers48c1,130$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.8917554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Pacers28c1,124$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.1320837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks40c1,067$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.578,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks52c1,058$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Knicks49c1,051$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5157152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Knicks52c1,045$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.47640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Pacers77c1,042$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.163,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Pacers50c1,040$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.74131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Pacers52c1,036$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.3326640.2%107 W · 159 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…93ccbacked Knicks5c1,020$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Knicks45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Pacers51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49022845.2%103 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Pacers50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Pacers52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Pacers52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48012844.5%57 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Knicks52c999.99$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52032347.1%152 W · 171 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers47c998.74$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.335,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e5…e2f4backed Pacers52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.544932.7%16 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Knicks45c937.31$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.793,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Knicks50c860$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0100…f6dcbacked Pacers49c820.58$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.588647.7%41 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Knicks49c816.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.