NBA · resolved market
Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 13.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcd5d6331fcdbe123fe6b3580bdaf3707840a772ecb5b982bb1c0230edb776a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 58c | 1,299$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.66 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 40c | 932.95$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.04 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dd…f4e5backed Yes | 42c | 870.7$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c05…fabfbacked No | 58c | 556.81$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 76 | 73.7%56 W · 20 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…c34dbacked Yes | 42c | 504.76$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 60c | 500$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.5 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffb4…cd62backed Yes | 53c | 483.36$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 47c | 469.56$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.87 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a1b0backed Yes | 76c | 463.37$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Yes | 41c | 456.85$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.05 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 60c | 422.48$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.37 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 55c | 318$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.28 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed Yes | 42c | 307.69$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed No | 58c | 256.26$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Yes | 43c | 231.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…7ca1backed Yes | 40c | 229.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 59c | 220$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 61c | 148.51$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…f692backed Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…4eacbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…db59backed Yes | 43c | 116.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed No | 59c | 100.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 213 | 57.7%123 W · 90 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3043…2cbbbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed No | 54c | 86.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed No | 56c | 65.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +28.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4546…a3f2backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…e6d1backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 50c | 56.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…a519backed No | 55c | 46.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 50c | 41.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 42c | 34.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 47c | 28.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e5…292fbacked Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 57c | 26.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 48c | 22.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…da3abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 58c | 17.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 13.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Pacers won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Pacers won
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jarace Walker: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jose Alvarado: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Josh Hart: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Pacers vs. KnicksPacers won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-11.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Knicks (-12.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.