TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1fa8…a519

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst IPO at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST2352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Hornets (-5.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+90.6%+$24.67
Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+177.8%+$35.56
Mavericks vs. Suns: 1H O/U 117.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 13.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+82.5%+$20.84
Spread: Knicks (-11.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Clippers (-3.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$68.15
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+92.3%+$36.92
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Derrick White: Points O/U 16.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+72.4%+$14.48
Spread: Suns (-5.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$44.25
Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+68.6%+$18.53
Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 11.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$24.32
Santi Aldama: Points O/U 14.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+85.2%+$12.16
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+104.1%+$102.9
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 24.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20
76ers vs. Warriorsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+150.5%+$118.69
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 16.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+63.9%+$12.79
Rockets vs. Pacers: O/U 217.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+88.7%+$94.87
Pistons vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+104.1%+$15.57
Nets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$16.96
All 23 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$21.82
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+218.5%+$36.2
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$14.89
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$17.78
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+36.5%+$56.19
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+174%+$23.42
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$65.83
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+167.7%+$85.4
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$67.29
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$98.89
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$54.33
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$268.53
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+235.8%+$94.33
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+72.1%+$146.92
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+50.2%+$7.35
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+81.8%+$10.72
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverancebacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$43.22
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+47.6%+$64.26
All 9 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Asian League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-63.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+62.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5)backed Florida State Seminoles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+106.2%+$42.48
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 162.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+88.7%+$17.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-01-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+45.4%+$58.59
Antalyaspor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$10.06
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+51.5%+$167.42
Blue Jackets vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20.81
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Bbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+82.8%+$18.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$124.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$76.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-01-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$34.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$11.52
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.