Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x640c448910fee5f218b55372bac85ba5ec722bb100d06afeffb75de308b3d106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $639,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $623,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $639,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 361 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 0c | 64,237$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.42 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked No | 0c | 33,350$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 32c | 18,800$5,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,833.78 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 11c | 11,090$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,897.74 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 4c | 8,366$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,011.99 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc4…c01ebacked Yes | 56c | 7,800$4,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,432 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked No | 44c | 7,800$3,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,432 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…aec1backed No | 2c | 6,900$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 5,884$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,964.03 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 58c | 5,657$3,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,369.64 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes | 16c | 4,880$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,081.85 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Yes | 9c | 4,233$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,833.17 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 34c | 4,129$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.32 | 599 | 27%162 W · 437 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 37c | 4,095$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,572.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…1662backed Yes | 55c | 3,902$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.22 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…e075backed Yes | 55c | 3,834$2,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.62 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 3c | 3,789$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 21c | 3,614$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.97 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…36f3backed No | 73c | 3,613$2,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.25 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 16c | 2,882$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432.35 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 2,881$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.82 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 6c | 2,769$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,604.64 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,616$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,525.09 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed No | 2c | 2,515$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 23c | 2,500$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 64c | 2,188$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.82 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 72c | 2,145$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.92 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 21c | 2,111$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.11 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.99 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,970$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.29 | 101 | 14.9%15 W · 86 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes | 50c | 1,917$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.91 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 39c | 1,872$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.96 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 56c | 1,850$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.55 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 1,836$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.01 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 47c | 1,772$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.18 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked No | 62c | 1,762$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.62 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 69c | 1,757$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.86 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…d945backed Yes | 12c | 1,732$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.56 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22b…1501backed Yes | 42c | 1,700$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 71c | 1,650$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,553$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.56 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes | 6c | 1,552$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.88 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…2ae8backed Yes | 78c | 1,536$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…3a8cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,520$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +583.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 54c | 1,400$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 40c | 1,383$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.98 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 62c | 1,376$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.96 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…905dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,333$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.65 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…4b41backed Yes | 6c | 1,332$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb52…67ccbacked No | 61c | 1,330$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +251.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes | 13c | 1,301$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.1 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…d927backed Yes | 12c | 1,282$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.73 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 57c | 1,269$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.22 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 3c | 1,222$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.21 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 3c | 1,211$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked No | 76c | 1,200$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.59 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,161$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.59 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,137$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.92 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 9c | 1,090$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…f202backed Yes | 8c | 1,080$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.1 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6411backed Yes | 5c | 1,058$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.1 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,051$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.52 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b15…193dbacked No | 13c | 1,035$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 42c | 1,029$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.63 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,018$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.87 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.96 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…24cabacked Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 73 | 12.3%9 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.49 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7691…7af7backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.98 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…7c5abacked Yes | 6c | 994.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.73 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 45c | 975.36$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.47 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 3c | 958.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.54 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 932.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.83 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc04a…af81backed No | 32c | 900$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50c…83edbacked Yes | 69c | 900$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 891.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.93 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 79c | 884.67$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.17 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes | 5c | 868.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.86 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…5855backed Yes | 3c | 859.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +174.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 47c | 851.78$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.64 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…befbbacked Yes | 3c | 844.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.86 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…2fe2backed Yes | 76c | 833.42$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 826.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…e152backed Yes | 62c | 800$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.75 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 50c | 750$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.05 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.66 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 10c | 688.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b47…2906backed No | 59c | 680.36$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.96 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 3c | 661.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.53 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 4c | 652.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.74 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…90a5backed No | 79c | 625.85$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Yes | 35c | 614.72$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.49 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…8ce5backed No | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 8c | 600$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.7 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 5c | 600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…6530backed Yes | 3c | 598.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +224.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked No | 2c | 572.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 12c | 570$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.61 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d4…6abbbacked Yes | 40c | 563.48$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed No | 40c | 548.5$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.06 | 237 | 35.4%84 W · 153 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.