Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1bdec9996bf5d7c1d4aa6021fb6698611f3b8e4472a9a31d2070d9adaeb46f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,554,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,156,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,554,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 0c | 484,396$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.09 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 2c | 54,000$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.05 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 0c | 52,984$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 1c | 39,403$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.67 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 31,166$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.8 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 23,811$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.41 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 6c | 20,466$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.97 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes | 1c | 17,867$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.02 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 3c | 14,009$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.31 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 1c | 14,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 13,922$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.66 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 2c | 13,022$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.05 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 11,509$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.91 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 11,344$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.91 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 0c | 10,798$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 1c | 10,528$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.74 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…8fd9backed Yes | 0c | 10,168$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 3c | 10,007$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.68 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed Yes | 1c | 8,824$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd908…68dabacked Yes | 0c | 8,794$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 1c | 8,173$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Yes | 1c | 8,158$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 7,507$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5a…7070backed Yes | 7c | 7,429$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…f37ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,333$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,242$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 3c | 7,238$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.07 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 3c | 7,074$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.14 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 2c | 6,738$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.88 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 0c | 6,680$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,016$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.39 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,961$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 1c | 5,121$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 4,685$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,563$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,543$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…1662backed Yes | 3c | 4,187$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.32 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32e8…72ccbacked Yes | 3c | 4,044$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…50fabacked Yes | 2c | 3,693$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…3100backed Yes | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 3,566$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 1c | 3,554$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,776$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…905dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,693$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…b47dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,634$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…d945backed Yes | 6c | 2,625$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.21 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,613$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…f202backed Yes | 2c | 2,593$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,538$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 2,352$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.22 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8147…294cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,180$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.37 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 2c | 2,128$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 2,051$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…9f34backed Yes | 3c | 1,936$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…6888backed Yes | 1c | 1,897$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd789…08e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,871$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,822$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,698$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…224ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,681$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,672$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…4b41backed Yes | 6c | 1,638$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…8775backed Yes | 2c | 1,561$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca02…8db9backed Yes | 2c | 1,540$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,422$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 7c | 1,408$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 2c | 1,403$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 4c | 1,354$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,326$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 3c | 1,264$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…4c16backed Yes | 1c | 1,219$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,210$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…3aa2backed Yes | 2c | 1,196$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa321…a4e9backed Yes | 6c | 1,088$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,087$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd7…e9f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,073$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +215.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…0272backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9408…9cb2backed Yes | 4c | 982.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 6c | 953.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Yes | 6c | 919$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…4d02backed Yes | 3c | 891.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…9216backed Yes | 3c | 886.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 4c | 861.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 6c | 837.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 2c | 827.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 4c | 790.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 3c | 762.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f2…56d9backed Yes | 2c | 761.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342d…9efdbacked Yes | 4c | 759.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 6c | 758.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…2fe2backed Yes | 3c | 744.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 2c | 743.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6411backed Yes | 4c | 703.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 694.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed Yes | 2c | 683.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ea…ef4fbacked Yes | 11c | 614.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Yes | 17c | 611.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.