Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4c2d4430f99a93c3cedebaaf50f17ba14a6e23e31b140e805b608379a745f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 18,951$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.69 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 1c | 10,188$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.28 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,558$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 6,916$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.67 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 6,655$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.18 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes | 17c | 3,328$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.75 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 3,248$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,074$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Yes | 21c | 2,599$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 14c | 2,520$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.02 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 2,498$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,850$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 4c | 1,763$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 1c | 1,757$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,650$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 11c | 1,453$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.38 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,213$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 20c | 1,207$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.42 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6411backed Yes | 18c | 1,105$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,074$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…1292backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7e87backed Yes | 20c | 999.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…5855backed Yes | 21c | 952.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +174.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 21c | 950.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…f202backed Yes | 7c | 897.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 10c | 890.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 873.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 4c | 861.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ca…3f6ebacked Yes | 19c | 789.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 766.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 3c | 731.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 15c | 690.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.55 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…48ffbacked Yes | 2c | 636.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…97a7backed Yes | 18c | 605.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 2c | 570.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 18c | 539.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…8fd9backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 465.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed Yes | 9c | 457.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…084ebacked Yes | 3c | 402.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd789…08e7backed Yes | 5c | 402.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…7423backed Yes | 17c | 397.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…5c90backed Yes | 15c | 355.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 19c | 302.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 278 | 11.9%33 W · 245 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb3…02e8backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 19c | 299.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…7723backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894d…b492backed Yes | 18c | 273.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes | 10c | 264$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 87 | 12.6%11 W · 76 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…be6bbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…bf9dbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5392…90d6backed Yes | 17c | 228.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 6c | 224.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c60…fcf2backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 12c | 179.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 174.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…f0d7backed Yes | 8c | 169.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…28b8backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 8c | 147.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 8c | 134.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…1ee5backed Yes | 12c | 128.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…bdd2backed Yes | 18c | 112.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…6f2bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 19c | 105.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccda…3eeebacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…7c5abacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…184ebacked Yes | 17c | 103.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 66 | 12.1%8 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a48…d8f8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…c2a0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…965fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f73…55aabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6637…ce15backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bb…2d3abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…ba8abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…8b8fbacked No | 76c | 92.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 94 | 16%15 W · 79 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8408…5dcabacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…2359backed Yes | 18c | 85.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -70%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…9382backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f7…274dbacked Yes | 18c | 82.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed0…cc4abacked Yes | 18c | 80.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 79.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.