TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$694,151
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$619,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $694,151 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc4d1…8ce8backed Yes13c226,063$29,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,388.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes35c22,136$7,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,831.7521213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes4c20,916$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.537815.4%12 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+57.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes2c20,629$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.384816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes9c11,689$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.4566222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes3c10,209$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.0310322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes26c9,755$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,566.9510523.8%25 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da1…964dbacked Yes36c9,332$3,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,372.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No55c7,719$4,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,435.1211556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes23c6,938$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.9418618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes3c6,648$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9112429.8%37 W · 87 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes23c6,173$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.351,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes14c5,000$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.99595.1%3 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No62c4,753$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.216056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c6…1f12backed Yes22c4,582$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.991315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes2c4,480$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9763414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes16c4,099$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.7175122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa0…3308backed Yes9c3,968$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.47944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes21c3,811$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.3422718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No75c3,609$2,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.0116969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes11c3,200$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3527233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eae…bd51backed Yes44c3,036$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.19944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No69c3,035$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.854274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes4c3,000$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12962412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes34c2,926$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c2,621$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.942,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0575…4c16backed Yes16c2,246$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.53023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.22,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes41c2,163$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.7818722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes30c2,156$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.773729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes2c2,127$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes12c2,050$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.54869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes7c2,047$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.71,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes17c2,030$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.3115819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14015413%20 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes30c2,000$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.3615017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdee0…5447backed Yes50c1,985$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.585139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked No78c1,892$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.211730.8%36 W · 81 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes8c1,796$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1368528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f4…46e1backed Yes32c1,783$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.971010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes22c1,757$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.497116.9%12 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes32c1,691$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.2878811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe22b…1501backed Yes46c1,675$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.691540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes45c1,674$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.873013.3%4 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-62.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes21c1,673$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.4946521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes20c1,650$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.6359225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes9c1,500$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.26622.7%15 W · 51 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No67c1,500$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.8741017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdc…5d81backed Yes10c1,440$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403622.2%8 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed No62c1,429$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.777334.2%25 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes20c1,419$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.447123.9%17 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes1c1,413$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4428016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x589b…d847backed No71c1,400$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.9785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes15c1,400$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c1,394$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.414568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes42c1,283$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.9914137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes33c1,278$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.265612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes39c1,232$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.526613.6%9 W · 57 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes29c1,193$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.165414.8%8 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5814…cb14backed Yes2c1,181$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.612937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+196.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes18c1,150$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.91,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked No67c1,113$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.422958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes36c1,100$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.744320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid+48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes19c1,100$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21434215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…b3c1backed Yes14c1,070$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4635…6c48backed Yes10c1,025$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-78.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No71c1,008$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.174070%28 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2579711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14038811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes18c999.99$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18125023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed No66c999.94$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.986527.7%18 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes33c999.45$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.144314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf321…2ae8backed Yes18c972.08$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes15c925$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1397825.6%20 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed No79c900$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.9431722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes12c900$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10521215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe5…636cbacked Yes31c894.66$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.145121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes33c890$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.94717%8 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No76c869.61$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.3643933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes9c860$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.622023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes31c851.79$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6129225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6149…ae26backed Yes26c813.27$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.831729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes14c791.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.147316.4%12 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf37…2454backed No66c769.8$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.731353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+81%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No73c767.77$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.323762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes35c749.98$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.9917434.5%60 W · 114 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f99…db70backed Yes13c742.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9408…9cb2backed Yes12c732.91$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.861323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed No79c732.01$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.523636.1%13 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+73.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c717.1$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.1226167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes15c699.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10818424.5%45 W · 139 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes9c699.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b6c…0b29backed Yes12c699.93$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.895743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes21c667.46$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2587917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c664.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.464345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes39c660.99$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.798923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No62c656.61$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.558719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d4…6abbbacked Yes28c621.25$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1761421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.