TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa701…86a3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
122
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NHL, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 56 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT4330.2%13 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Oilers vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+318.2%+$509.05
Kraken vs. Jetsbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Flyers vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.38
Predators vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Flames vs. Golden Knightsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.08
Maple Leafs vs. Sharksbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Utah vs. Krakenbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+204.4%+$408.87
Canucks vs. Wildbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Red Wings vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Jets vs. Starsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Canadiens vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Penguins vs. Lightningbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Bruins vs. Panthersbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Capitals vs. Devilsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Blues vs. Kingsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Ducks vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$426.32
Canucks vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Kraken vs. Oilersbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Jets vs. Blackhawksbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$300
Devils vs. Rangersbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Senators vs. Panthersbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$430
Red Wings vs. Penguinsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.85
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Canadiens vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT3718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$702Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$702.5
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+188.2%+$193.53
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.57
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.39
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.12
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.53
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.5
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$440
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$643Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$642.76
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+651.5%+$1,759.15
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+324.8%+$3,507.62
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$650
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+367.7%+$1,544.25
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT2218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.42
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.07
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.61
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+316.8%+$453.6
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.25
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.35
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.45
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.49
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.36
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.5
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.67
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.68
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.45
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.05
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astrosbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.27
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$213.37
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+869.7%+$281.07
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+507.4%+$722.98
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.93
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.08
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.27
Athletics vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.15
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Warriorsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.67
Hawks vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.15
Pacers vs. Hornetsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.5
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.13
Kings vs. Raptorsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+679.1%+$965.53
Bucks vs. Rocketsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.36
Knicks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.84
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.79
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.73
76ers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.6
Pistons vs. Thunderbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$265.9
Wizards vs. Lakersbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.61
Cavaliers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.66
Timberwolves vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.34
Bulls vs. Spursbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.98
76ers vs. Heatbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Suns vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.09
Celtics vs. Hawksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.57
All 18 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-04-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.43
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.