TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$587,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$505,335

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $587,994 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 413 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes22c25,769$5,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,631.1956429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x459c…7ebcbacked Yes19c24,847$4,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,838.512321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes17c20,527$3,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,557.7829331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes22c9,521$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,135.2366222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes26c9,200$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,402.3311556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a5…d8eabacked No76c8,500$6,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes23c7,642$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f2c…c480backed No79c7,565$5,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.671450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed No77c7,423$5,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.4910824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes20c7,174$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.6257621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No79c6,751$5,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.2618123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes23c6,650$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.488017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes15c6,125$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.0631621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…f169backed No79c5,422$4,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.744348.8%21 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes24c5,128$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.8253522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b2…7cdabacked Yes27c4,822$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3002832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes19c4,700$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.391,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes28c4,137$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.9421213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes26c3,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No75c3,506$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.7462539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes19c3,456$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.243724.3%9 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-24.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes18c3,414$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.5728016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa752…e19fbacked Yes28c3,410$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.223930.8%12 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+75.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes20c3,224$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.1729227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c3,090$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.862,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes19c2,990$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.9916427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed No80c2,714$2,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.8719124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes18c2,611$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.0548819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a03…86dcbacked No80c2,563$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.034365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes21c2,501$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.1713817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes23c2,500$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56556817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed Yes18c2,395$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4403718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafe…2e34backed Yes28c2,390$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.244129.3%12 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes4c2,269$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9546521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No78c2,269$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.5228025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes23c2,206$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.143318.2%6 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes23c2,093$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.6914233.8%48 W · 94 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc012…5d52backed No78c2,022$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.962330.4%7 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes18c1,901$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.9420735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes16c1,856$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005719.3%11 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes18c1,824$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.423036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes21c1,800$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.1315128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes21c1,786$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.4626418.6%49 W · 215 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes18c1,783$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.23724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes24c1,689$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.7238828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c45…4503backed Yes19c1,649$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.281435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+61.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No78c1,604$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.3522023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd510…d56dbacked No79c1,543$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.72977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes17c1,500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.1850913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed No77c1,469$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.925141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes26c1,382$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.2928526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes2c1,353$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.28916.9%15 W · 74 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes30c1,344$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.257913.9%11 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed Yes18c1,232$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.638619.8%17 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes4c1,200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4931722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No78c1,165$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.6916056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4f…54e2backed Yes3c1,150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.52729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes16c1,100$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17724815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes25c1,095$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.2846521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20063414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes21c1,050$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.617022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac43…3a33backed Yes22c1,034$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.76544.6%29 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes26c1,000$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.3418822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105915.3%9 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed No76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes25c999.92$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.7817628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes22c969.47$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0833231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x653f…c386backed No80c953.26$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.076823.5%16 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No78c932.05$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.9231565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes20c925.57$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6459225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No80c909.54$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.96167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes16c900.02$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14414137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes19c893.46$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.323019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes16c839.34$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5328723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed No76c805$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.56930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No75c800$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.910866.7%72 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes8c773.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.634215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x446f…8148backed Yes15c747.93$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes11c741.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.121,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes22c738.76$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2217324.3%42 W · 131 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Yes22c704.7$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes4c700$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3119118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14b8…79efbacked No74c700$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb19…9a2abacked No70c699.98$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.996825%17 W · 51 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2177…3856backed Yes22c699.67$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes20c686.57$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.859627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No80c660.01$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13254675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc135…4bdebacked Yes20c653.96$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.612718.5%5 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc47b…9843backed Yes26c652.13$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1704017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No73c646.23$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.0863821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes17c634.22$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510013%13 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb29…64f3backed Yes23c620$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.311346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+90.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes16c608.35$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951656.7%11 W · 154 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed No76c607.99$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.396634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed No72c605.09$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6227316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No69c600.04$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.4346137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aef…da41backed Yes15c600$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes20c599.58$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0414025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6d…8804backed Yes16c575$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-65.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.