TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$563,103
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$606,933

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $563,103 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 447 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d39…b8c6backed Yes42c19,987$8,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,569.97944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+46.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes76c10,885$8,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.6118618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No28c9,490$2,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,665.311,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f4a…1a75backed No1c8,748$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.211910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes64c8,622$5,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,091.8863414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes41c7,658$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,518.3554122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No6c7,159$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.3162539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes57c6,976$3,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,015.1676821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No10c6,387$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.5956429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes32c6,056$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,104.4414137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No6c5,770$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.17820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e2a…534ebacked Yes43c5,451$2,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,106.881330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes21c5,351$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,247.1720735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes32c5,005$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,425.4724115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes40c4,140$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.5160127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes76c4,000$3,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.6657222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e100backed No78c3,973$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,110.614613%6 W · 40 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-31.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No70c3,890$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.5954675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes30c3,001$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,112.6818822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes68c3,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9605635.7%20 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes26c2,913$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.242556%14 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes36c2,760$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.5116427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes71c2,667$1,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.7722023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes46c2,647$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.7446521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No27c2,550$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67823464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No69c2,544$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.3941017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c2,469$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.6578811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed No20c2,376$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.1925617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes26c2,233$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65617919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes35c2,141$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.055228.8%15 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed Yes13c2,029$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.153718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes59c2,004$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.2131722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes27c2,001$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes17c1,997$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.85808.8%7 W · 73 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No63c1,882$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.3611556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c1,780$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.782,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes60c1,703$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.3523831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes43c1,662$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.0413318%24 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes47c1,609$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.3129225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252f…bfc1backed Yes23c1,563$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.586630.3%20 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes54c1,512$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.3819927.6%55 W · 144 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes10c1,500$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.581,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No1c1,484$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed No71c1,480$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.0412429.8%37 W · 87 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes33c1,429$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.6288017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c1,358$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.681,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa2…e6f3backed Yes30c1,347$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.832445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf72d…8d07backed Yes72c1,340$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.091050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb3…f8d6backed No9c1,329$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes19c1,302$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.737035.7%25 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes72c1,300$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36318722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes31c1,292$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.8422718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes52c1,261$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.3659225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes70c1,261$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.248622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes11c1,260$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.5934215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes41c1,250$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.54936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8241…f368backed No59c1,250$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes14c1,242$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.5619726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes50c1,228$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.277544%33 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes17c1,223$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.4219317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes60c1,221$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.7345511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes42c1,214$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.831,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes46c1,211$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.537613.2%10 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes47c1,179$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.2338828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x937e…15f9backed Yes78c1,154$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.851442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes23c1,125$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.272359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No42c1,103$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.9510857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x564b…8348backed Yes60c1,055$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.74114.6%6 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No56c1,005$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.253112.9%4 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick18cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87c0…71a0backed No70c1,004$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes13c1,000$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86615017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes23c998.43$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.1414411.1%16 W · 128 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x330b…42debacked Yes45c995.05$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.053826.3%10 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes54c931.49$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.7928526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f02…5f35backed No56c929.98$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.391662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+47.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes45c909.17$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.885016%8 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x460c…d25fbacked Yes22c883.02$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.024325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes48c830.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.9917126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes49c828.86$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.848325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb13…2de9backed No24c812.66$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.933554.3%19 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes53c803.35$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.7114025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes37c799.99$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.2913023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c5…e133backed Yes47c791$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.327132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes57c776.83$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.7419550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed No22c756.74$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes63c700$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2565317%9 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6282…c9f0backed Yes27c699.96$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.332171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes61c650$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25321233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes7c640$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.23815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No70c621.44$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.9920924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x119c…aaf2backed Yes74c620.37$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.422147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7769…87f4backed No32c618.27$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1150%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes56c599.93$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.1914818.2%27 W · 121 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c9…495abacked Yes56c573.5$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.392536%9 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c98…6f55backed Yes42c572.02$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.5422824.1%55 W · 173 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked Yes66c571.67$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.39650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+180.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No70c565.81$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9631565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2850…a9d6backed No63c560.18$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No51c557.33$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1143933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes68c550.29$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.7417434.5%60 W · 114 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.