Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa56c7d32f8573a0c7e3bfc50573387f26f6a6c5420b818a02c61f3dd27591ef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $563,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $606,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $563,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 447 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d39…b8c6backed Yes | 42c | 19,987$8,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,569.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 76c | 10,885$8,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.61 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 28c | 9,490$2,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,665.31 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4a…1a75backed No | 1c | 8,748$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 64c | 8,622$5,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,091.88 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 41c | 7,658$3,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,518.35 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 6c | 7,159$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.31 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 6,976$3,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,015.16 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 10c | 6,387$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.59 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 32c | 6,056$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,104.44 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 6c | 5,770$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.1 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2a…534ebacked Yes | 43c | 5,451$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,106.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 21c | 5,351$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,247.17 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 32c | 5,005$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,425.47 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 40c | 4,140$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,481.51 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 76c | 4,000$3,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.66 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e100backed No | 78c | 3,973$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.61 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 70c | 3,890$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,709.59 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 30c | 3,001$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.68 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes | 26c | 2,913$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,152.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 36c | 2,760$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.51 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 71c | 2,667$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.77 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 46c | 2,647$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.74 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 27c | 2,550$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 69c | 2,544$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.39 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 2,469$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.65 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 20c | 2,376$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.19 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 26c | 2,233$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 35c | 2,141$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.05 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Yes | 13c | 2,029$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.15 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 59c | 2,004$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.21 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 27c | 2,001$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.4 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 17c | 1,997$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.85 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 63c | 1,882$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.36 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 1,780$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.78 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 60c | 1,703$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.35 | 238 | 31.1%74 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,662$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.04 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 47c | 1,609$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.31 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 23c | 1,563$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.58 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 54c | 1,512$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.38 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.58 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 1c | 1,484$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 71c | 1,480$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.04 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 33c | 1,429$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.62 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 1,358$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.68 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…e6f3backed Yes | 30c | 1,347$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…8d07backed Yes | 72c | 1,340$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed No | 9c | 1,329$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 19c | 1,302$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.73 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 72c | 1,300$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 31c | 1,292$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.84 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,261$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.36 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 70c | 1,261$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.24 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 11c | 1,260$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.59 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 41c | 1,250$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.5 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…f368backed No | 59c | 1,250$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 14c | 1,242$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.56 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes | 50c | 1,228$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.27 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 17c | 1,223$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.42 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 60c | 1,221$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.73 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 42c | 1,214$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.83 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 46c | 1,211$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.53 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 47c | 1,179$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.23 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…15f9backed Yes | 78c | 1,154$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 23c | 1,125$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.27 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 42c | 1,103$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.95 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 60c | 1,055$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.7 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 56c | 1,005$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.25 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…71a0backed No | 70c | 1,004$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 23c | 998.43$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.14 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…42debacked Yes | 45c | 995.05$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.05 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 54c | 931.49$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.79 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…5f35backed No | 56c | 929.98$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.39 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes | 45c | 909.17$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.88 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…d25fbacked Yes | 22c | 883.02$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.02 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 48c | 830.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.99 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes | 49c | 828.86$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.84 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 24c | 812.66$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.93 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 53c | 803.35$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.71 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 37c | 799.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.29 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…e133backed Yes | 47c | 791$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.32 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 776.83$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.74 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed No | 22c | 756.74$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes | 63c | 700$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…c9f0backed Yes | 27c | 699.96$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.33 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 61c | 650$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes | 7c | 640$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.2 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 70c | 621.44$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.99 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x119c…aaf2backed Yes | 74c | 620.37$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…87f4backed No | 32c | 618.27$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 56c | 599.93$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.19 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…495abacked Yes | 56c | 573.5$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.39 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 42c | 572.02$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.54 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked Yes | 66c | 571.67$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 565.81$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.96 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…a9d6backed No | 63c | 560.18$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 51c | 557.33$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.11 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 68c | 550.29$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.74 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.