Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbafe15f9b563cc1bfd8fa6063aed31579849e4afea849c8ee0050dfae918a6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,047$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,845$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…6e44backed Yes | 1c | 3,205$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c3…f7f5backed Yes | 3c | 3,097$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6d…0446backed Yes | 1c | 2,644$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,642$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 2,265$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 2,008$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 1,860$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 2c | 1,744$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,630$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…fa5fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,372$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,366$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,343$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 2c | 1,320$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,265$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 2c | 1,126$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…0272backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 969.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4908…2792backed Yes | 2c | 946.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 906.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 899.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 2c | 875.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 2c | 814.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fe…7d2abacked Yes | 6c | 813.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 2c | 753.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 741.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf663…bff8backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 3c | 581$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 4c | 545.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…3badbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 496.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 3c | 479.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d1ebacked Yes | 4c | 464.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 428.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 5c | 398.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 3c | 369$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.