Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59107e714407fb70953a8b5dfe46c376e6efe93385c018082769ba0cebe0f0dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 0c | 30,010$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…3ccebacked Yes | 0c | 7,620$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 125 | 14.4%18 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 1c | 5,749$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 12c | 5,272$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.6 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,183$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 3,560$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 13c | 3,278$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.62 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 13c | 3,163$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 14c | 3,104$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.66 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 2,998$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.01 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,722$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.72 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 10c | 2,300$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.86 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 2,280$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 14c | 2,135$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.43 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 11c | 1,975$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.63 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 21c | 1,516$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.83 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 10c | 1,509$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.45 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.68 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 15c | 1,385$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.93 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 19c | 1,192$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,129$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 22c | 1,026$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.82 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…5dbebacked Yes | 14c | 1,010$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 23c | 999.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 921$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 78c | 813.26$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.99 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 11c | 810.22$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 16c | 800$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed No | 79c | 758$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.18 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…657bbacked Yes | 3c | 726.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 14c | 701.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 13c | 668.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…6e44backed Yes | 2c | 652.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 12c | 628.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 16c | 615.03$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 601.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…413ebacked Yes | 13c | 579.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 550$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 12c | 549.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 3c | 533.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 15c | 526.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 80c | 518.02$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 22c | 502$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288c…3318backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…e672backed Yes | 15c | 479.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 13c | 431.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x119c…aaf2backed Yes | 23c | 425.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…2fe2backed Yes | 20c | 410.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 15c | 405.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02dd…16dfbacked Yes | 20c | 369.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4908…2792backed Yes | 14c | 364.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 15c | 324.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 15c | 317.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…7a9bbacked Yes | 16c | 306.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 8c | 303.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 15c | 300.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…1049backed Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 21c | 280$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 11c | 269.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 442 | 27.4%121 W · 321 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Yes | 15c | 240.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 106 | 23.6%25 W · 81 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…f5f9backed Yes | 23c | 239.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32d…c4b8backed Yes | 19c | 229.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 14c | 220.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 164 | 20.7%34 W · 130 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65e…814ebacked Yes | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…65b4backed Yes | 11c | 219.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed Yes | 24c | 211.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 16c | 194.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes | 14c | 184.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1730…4fd4backed No | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 15c | 166.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42de…d7a8backed Yes | 13c | 157.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 19c | 155.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Yes | 17c | 155.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…953cbacked Yes | 19c | 150.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cf…95e9backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…7c5abacked Yes | 14c | 139.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 15c | 133.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…b296backed Yes | 20c | 132.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 360 | 18.9%68 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5745…fa76backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21c…6934backed Yes | 15c | 115.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d00…a5cebacked Yes | 14c | 110.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 13c | 108.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6d…47fcbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 24.2%44 W · 138 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.