TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$546,111
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$402,316

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $546,111 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes3c66,778$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9941,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes0c38,755$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2924815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7332…7fa1backed Yes0c17,960$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes2c12,175$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.244165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes1c11,239$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3124114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes5c8,712$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.341,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes3c7,524$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007544%33 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x117f…e958backed Yes1c6,485$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.472326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes41c6,000$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.9854122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes2c4,736$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6223019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes26c4,525$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.637613.2%10 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c4,355$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.454568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes2c4,200$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6556817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes46c3,702$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,69063414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No66c3,638$2,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.1254675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes8c3,635$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.6915819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes6c3,628$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21622718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes1c3,543$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7933231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes38c3,238$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.9117919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x564b…8348backed Yes4c3,154$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.84114.6%6 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c3,129$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.761,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9918822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No62c2,777$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.720735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes21c2,757$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.2360127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes35c2,377$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.0918618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes3c2,328$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.728526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes35c2,300$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.7924115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No57c2,264$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.7656429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes17c2,140$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.541,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes30c2,085$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.4819317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes16c1,957$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.2334215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes3c1,931$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011730.8%36 W · 81 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c1,871$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.972,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes14c1,714$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.1832110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes4c1,709$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9729225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes13c1,703$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5576821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes3c1,642$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.999616.7%16 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes22c1,611$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.9914411.1%16 W · 128 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes14c1,500$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.514928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c1,306$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.7978811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x094c…e608backed Yes3c1,280$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…5dbebacked Yes34c1,247$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes13c1,243$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2688018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes22c1,198$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.583408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes33c1,060$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.732716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105228.8%15 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes11c997.46$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0788017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes38c984.23$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.2618123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No53c947.57$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.2520924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes38c800.16$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0617434.5%60 W · 114 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes30c793.5$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.578622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a9d…413ebacked Yes35c791.43$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes15c784.84$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8459225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes7c712$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8410513.3%14 W · 91 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes38c663.4$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.7819726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes40c640$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2563815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes2c625.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.061189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes39c622.2$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2526411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb79…1fcebacked Yes2c603.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435a…c529backed No80c590$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1181637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9955…85afbacked No77c518.35$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3518357.9%106 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…e965backed Yes22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed No68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1604513.3%6 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes6c499.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2821233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No61c499.96$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.986097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes35c479.11$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2910818.5%20 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c418.38$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4626167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes29c410$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.440016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes13c389.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.612514.4%18 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5038614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No63c380.53$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.331565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c7…e672backed Yes34c373.48$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…0d4ebacked No61c369.99$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1914050%70 W · 70 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d68…1474backed Yes36c344.71$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1247525.3%19 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7817…d4b1backed Yes10c336.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick15cpaid+7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd41b…8649backed Yes39c335.14$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302528%7 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes16c319.28$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3927316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c65…7a9bbacked Yes47c318.65$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502020%4 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05a…1049backed Yes32c305.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes35c301.83$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1317126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes34c300.22$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.910422.1%23 W · 81 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes24c299.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7313023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes48c296.08$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1226722.8%61 W · 206 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5748…afc3backed Yes45c287.41$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed No73c274.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.758527.1%23 W · 62 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe3…b9b8backed Yes39c257.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9f…2fe2backed Yes34c255.17$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.471844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14d0…8df8backed Yes10c250.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes34c250$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8515017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes7c250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.523831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes45c242.39$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109241.3%38 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No73c241$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.810857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes15c226.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3443126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No58c201.28$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.941017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8225023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d48…657bbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes10c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.882714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.