TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$815,590
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$785,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $815,590 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 517 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes23c52,068$11,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,744.6663414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes25c27,338$6,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,854.671,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes17c13,604$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.1411556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No73c13,165$9,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,549.1756329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes24c11,382$2,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,726.659927%162 W · 437 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes21c9,639$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.1757222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes22c7,903$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,734.824115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes24c7,586$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.9556817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes16c7,397$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17518618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No72c7,298$5,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,065.569423.4%22 W · 72 L-16.1wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes25c6,976$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.1576821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f02…5f35backed No80c6,479$5,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.131662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+47.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes26c6,425$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.8966222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes26c5,871$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.0814928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No62c5,458$3,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.3218123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No71c5,316$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.7154274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No79c5,247$4,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.9316056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No66c4,668$3,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.746457.8%37 W · 27 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes46c4,457$2,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,068.8814137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes21c4,417$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.4424815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes28c4,344$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.9722718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes24c4,027$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.416427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No70c3,806$2,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.8346137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes6c3,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21045511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34bf…26e7backed Yes15c3,449$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.877939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4b…cac3backed No61c3,324$2,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.234531.1%14 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x503f…8989backed No77c3,249$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No71c3,200$2,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.3615164.9%98 W · 53 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes15c3,121$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.865016%8 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes28c3,075$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.4917919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes20c3,019$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.425635.7%20 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes46c3,000$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.9618822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked No77c3,000$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.992626.9%7 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+210.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes22c2,954$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.0325023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes21c2,900$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.3731722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…e958backed Yes33c2,882$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.112326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes29c2,627$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.591,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes14c2,600$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.845198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb3…2868backed No79c2,460$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes35c2,416$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.1123831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes20c2,235$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.3210431.7%33 W · 71 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+125.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes13c2,200$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29030317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes28c2,196$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.517825.6%20 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed No62c1,640$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.8138828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes21c1,636$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.7522023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes34c1,609$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.3429225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b25…a545backed No69c1,551$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.173429.4%10 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-52.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes38c1,473$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55617126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…5dbebacked Yes29c1,448$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes29c1,440$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.8425617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes27c1,404$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.8319726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf72d…8d07backed Yes25c1,352$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3391050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c1,322$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.4678811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes11c1,300$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13918722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes24c1,261$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30259225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c0…71a0backed No64c1,254$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.481747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c1,246$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.072,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes35c1,227$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.1414025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed No79c1,221$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.138826.1%23 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-47.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed No67c1,206$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.387613.2%10 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes35c1,193$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.1619317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes23c1,180$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.991,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed No66c1,139$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.45228.8%15 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x564b…8348backed Yes32c1,127$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3604114.6%6 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x783c…fd0dbacked No78c1,086$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.555448.1%26 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fac…f0dcbacked No80c1,079$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.851330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-48.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ca5…6aecbacked No78c1,039$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.52133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No72c1,006$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2773762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes39c1,006$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.0428526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes29c1,000$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29110727.1%29 W · 78 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44c…d5a6backed No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes10c999.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No77c955.74$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.5519550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes9c944.61$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No67c941$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.911868.6%16 W · 170 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes32c933.02$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30038614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a8…8d63backed No79c904.99$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes33c899.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a9d…413ebacked Yes31c894.5$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked No69c877.36$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.982958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed No73c863.16$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.952630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b1…d1a2backed Yes30c862.4$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked Yes21c858.04$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.19220%0 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ca1…825fbacked No78c849.13$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.191353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x252f…bfc1backed Yes32c844.85$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.596630.3%20 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes25c842.88$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.0387618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435a…c529backed No71c825.99$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.541637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee76…8fcebacked Yes9c825.32$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.264517.8%8 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x087b…713ebacked No73c818.7$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes21c813.79$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.098622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes23c809.98$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.634215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes40c799.99$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.5612213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f2c…6da7backed No79c799.32$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.537643.4%33 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes12c777.69$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3427316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes41c777.19$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.9113318%24 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb914…d12ebacked No80c769.45$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.891631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes29c739.19$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5433231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No69c737.14$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.5120924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.