Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x367e1fde4a30513ea88ce52b6fb34411dd41e5aca3d070288e3c780eb09f2f8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $815,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $785,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $815,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 517 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 23c | 52,068$11,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,744.66 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 25c | 27,338$6,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,854.67 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 17c | 13,604$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.14 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 73c | 13,165$9,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,549.17 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 24c | 11,382$2,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.6 | 599 | 27%162 W · 437 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 21c | 9,639$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.17 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 22c | 7,903$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.8 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 24c | 7,586$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.95 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 16c | 7,397$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 72c | 7,298$5,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.56 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 6,976$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.15 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…5f35backed No | 80c | 6,479$5,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.13 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 26c | 6,425$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.89 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 26c | 5,871$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.08 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 62c | 5,458$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,059.32 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 71c | 5,316$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.71 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 79c | 5,247$4,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.93 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 66c | 4,668$3,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.74 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 46c | 4,457$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.88 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 21c | 4,417$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.44 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 28c | 4,344$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.97 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 24c | 4,027$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.4 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 70c | 3,806$2,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.83 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 6c | 3,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed Yes | 15c | 3,449$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.87 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…cac3backed No | 61c | 3,324$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.23 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…8989backed No | 77c | 3,249$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 71c | 3,200$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.36 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,121$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.86 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 28c | 3,075$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.49 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 20c | 3,019$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.42 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 46c | 3,000$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.96 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294a…bbbabacked No | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 22c | 2,954$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.03 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 21c | 2,900$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.37 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…e958backed Yes | 33c | 2,882$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.11 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 29c | 2,627$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.59 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 14c | 2,600$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.84 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…2868backed No | 79c | 2,460$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,416$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.11 | 238 | 31.1%74 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,235$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.32 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 13c | 2,200$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 28c | 2,196$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.51 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 62c | 1,640$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.81 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 21c | 1,636$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.75 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 34c | 1,609$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.34 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b25…a545backed No | 69c | 1,551$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.17 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,473$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…5dbebacked Yes | 29c | 1,448$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 29c | 1,440$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.84 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 27c | 1,404$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.83 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…8d07backed Yes | 25c | 1,352$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 1,322$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.46 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 11c | 1,300$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,261$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…71a0backed No | 64c | 1,254$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 1,246$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.07 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 35c | 1,227$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.14 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed No | 79c | 1,221$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.13 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed No | 67c | 1,206$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.38 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 35c | 1,193$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.16 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 23c | 1,180$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.99 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed No | 66c | 1,139$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.4 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 32c | 1,127$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…fd0dbacked No | 78c | 1,086$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.55 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…f0dcbacked No | 80c | 1,079$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…6aecbacked No | 78c | 1,039$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 72c | 1,006$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,006$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.04 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…d5a6backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 955.74$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.55 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 9c | 944.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 67c | 941$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.91 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 32c | 933.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a8…8d63backed No | 79c | 904.99$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 33c | 899.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…413ebacked Yes | 31c | 894.5$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked No | 69c | 877.36$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.98 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 73c | 863.16$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.95 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…d1a2backed Yes | 30c | 862.4$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked Yes | 21c | 858.04$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.19 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…825fbacked No | 78c | 849.13$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 32c | 844.85$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.59 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 25c | 842.88$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.03 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…c529backed No | 71c | 825.99$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fcebacked Yes | 9c | 825.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked No | 73c | 818.7$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 21c | 813.79$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.09 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 23c | 809.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes | 40c | 799.99$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.56 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…6da7backed No | 79c | 799.32$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.53 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 12c | 777.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 41c | 777.19$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.91 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb914…d12ebacked No | 80c | 769.45$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.89 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 29c | 739.19$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.54 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 69c | 737.14$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.51 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.