Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33c5ae0b1967e69204b1d7efee066a23f5fa66b5335582b1e644d7d99f3ff56d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $809,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $529,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $809,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 100,643$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 65,351$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.41 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 0c | 52,215$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.51 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…1fb6backed Yes | 0c | 29,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 1c | 27,971$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.88 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…a133backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1a…d9efbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed Yes | 1c | 19,716$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.97 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…7423backed Yes | 0c | 17,600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 1c | 16,254$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.36 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c28…7d1fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,591$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa908…cd65backed Yes | 0c | 13,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,089$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 1c | 10,601$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…5323backed Yes | 0c | 10,497$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…dbaabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…f9c2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 7,267$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 3c | 6,515$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.92 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…be50backed Yes | 2c | 3,711$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 3,485$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,356$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 18c | 3,214$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.44 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 15c | 3,151$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.56 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 3,150$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 3,030$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 2,970$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.15 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 73c | 2,547$1,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.15 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,475$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 22c | 2,424$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.23 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 2,270$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.78 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 15c | 2,187$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.35 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 4c | 2,056$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 21c | 2,051$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.02 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6189…8f69backed Yes | 2c | 2,031$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…13c4backed Yes | 5c | 2,027$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…ed88backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 10c | 1,995$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.43 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,934$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes | 1c | 1,834$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 15c | 1,767$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.12 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 1,760$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 2c | 1,731$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,680$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…1662backed Yes | 30c | 1,679$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,668$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,648$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…de01backed Yes | 1c | 1,503$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,466$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 80c | 1,450$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…1df7backed Yes | 5c | 1,287$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 180 | 24.4%44 W · 136 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff6…8a8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,263$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9992backed Yes | 2c | 1,240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Yes | 24c | 1,226$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…bc38backed Yes | 26c | 1,146$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…f5a9backed Yes | 18c | 1,094$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…ea33backed Yes | 2c | 1,055$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,031$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 1c | 1,028$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 6c | 1,020$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,016$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed Yes | 5c | 1,004$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…5001backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…1f12backed Yes | 6c | 954.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes | 11c | 924$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 15c | 787.28$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 6c | 784.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…c936backed Yes | 2c | 766.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…3658backed Yes | 2c | 749.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6d…0446backed Yes | 2c | 735.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…fd2fbacked Yes | 2c | 691.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 15c | 687.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.73 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 2c | 687.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 670$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 76c | 668.22$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…2b42backed No | 76c | 657.36$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.9 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 648.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e7…40ccbacked Yes | 2c | 648.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 8c | 630.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 7c | 601.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked Yes | 2c | 599.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 2c | 599.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…ba8abacked Yes | 2c | 571.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 13c | 562.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bf…11d2backed Yes | 2c | 522.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 16c | 508.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…2a6fbacked Yes | 10c | 502.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 6c | 499.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 6c | 497.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes | 17c | 497.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 57c | 464.67$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.64 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 26c | 454.11$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 161 | 24.2%39 W · 122 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 9c | 449.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 14c | 426.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.