Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53cf0fc741b273314478ba07444ad1a9959cfbc0c2070e74982de451105de686
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 19,401$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.58 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,332$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…bc38backed Yes | 8c | 10,681$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 16c | 5,355$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.53 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6d…0446backed Yes | 1c | 4,088$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 13c | 3,773$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.33 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 3,119$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 2,672$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 77c | 2,316$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.27 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 4c | 2,217$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 13c | 2,200$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.83 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,894$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,726$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,675$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 11c | 1,541$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.05 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,450$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,422$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.88 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…1662backed Yes | 17c | 1,412$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.28 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 1,268$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.1 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d8…6082backed Yes | 13c | 1,211$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 37c | 1,165$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.23 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 2c | 1,063$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,048$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 2c | 999.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33c…84d5backed Yes | 2c | 937.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 12c | 850$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…59a1backed No | 79c | 801.82$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.73 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 9c | 788.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 684.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 5c | 600.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 38c | 516.1$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.46 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 499.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 11c | 499.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…9858backed No | 79c | 497.43$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…fc1dbacked Yes | 26c | 472.91$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 11c | 452.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 4c | 449.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…46e1backed Yes | 21c | 439.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 422.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 9c | 409$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 127 | 12.6%16 W · 111 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 16c | 399.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 31c | 385.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 367.81$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 6c | 361.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 37c | 319.68$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked Yes | 34c | 290.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 281.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 17c | 254.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 12c | 250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…ec01backed Yes | 34c | 231.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes | 11c | 228.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…9054backed Yes | 16c | 217.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…e29fbacked Yes | 11c | 214.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…48c7backed No | 78c | 205.82$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 74c | 189.62$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bf…11d2backed Yes | 6c | 174.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7840…1039backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes | 9c | 149.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 278 | 11.9%33 W · 245 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d27…cf39backed Yes | 14c | 145.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdd…f1c7backed No | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9039…d819backed No | 73c | 137.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 135.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca3a…b9c6backed Yes | 20c | 127.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0d…d248backed Yes | 10c | 126.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 13c | 117.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…c2a0backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5f74…a2acbacked Yes | 18c | 94.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d94…c973backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 29c | 66.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 72c | 63.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ea…ef4fbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…7d8abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…c858backed Yes | 37c | 27.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…3c66backed No | 79c | 21.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f6…fb3ebacked No | 79c | 20.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed No | 71c | 20.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.