Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b0adf76b86986f8a062682b29e507d2b56f8980ae5c1bd1a7ff47bf76689162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 10c | 20,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.98 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 21c | 4,632$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.63 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 4,149$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.16 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 3,600$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.7 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 74c | 2,732$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.05 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 13c | 2,520$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.45 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,034$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.31 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 37c | 1,900$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 1,767$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.42 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,742$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…1662backed Yes | 31c | 1,444$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.4 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 27c | 1,268$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.1 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…bc38backed Yes | 25c | 1,189$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 22c | 1,166$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.98 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 17c | 1,157$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.78 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 30c | 1,003$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b20…1a40backed No | 71c | 999.98$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 20c | 997.9$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…8b8fbacked No | 59c | 974.39$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.68 | 94 | 16%15 W · 79 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 74c | 891.93$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.52 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 72c | 846.97$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.21 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 26c | 755.08$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.27 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 20c | 750.07$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 729.88$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 698.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 11c | 684.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 68c | 651.47$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.02 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 33c | 600.67$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.24 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 13c | 599.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 34c | 580.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 15c | 540$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes | 23c | 523.45$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 23c | 500.09$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 13c | 436.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 28c | 434.79$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…ec01backed Yes | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd97…776cbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 17c | 399.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 6c | 367.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 29c | 330.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 322.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 32c | 312.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 75c | 310.89$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 293.1$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 19c | 274.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes | 38c | 263.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…1df7backed Yes | 6c | 263.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 180 | 24.4%44 W · 136 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 21c | 250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 28c | 249.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 161 | 24.2%39 W · 122 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 25c | 235.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 75c | 231.53$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 22c | 223.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 220.06$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes | 30c | 215.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 24c | 201$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 29c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…d5c2backed Yes | 27c | 184.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…2aa5backed Yes | 30c | 183.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 181$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 180.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…978dbacked Yes | 31c | 174.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 100 | 32%32 W · 68 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 28c | 173.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 26c | 173.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 79c | 172.66$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…fc1dbacked Yes | 29c | 168.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 152.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 25c | 138.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…d25fbacked Yes | 16c | 135.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…d253backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…c260backed Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…9054backed Yes | 31c | 126.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…4d02backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 72c | 109.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 29c | 108.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 107.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaf95…00ccbacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…5c90backed Yes | 28c | 104.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863c…655cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 16.7%18 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…a7c0backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…0badbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f74…a2acbacked Yes | 31c | 94.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 16c | 92.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864d…64afbacked Yes | 29c | 91.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 122 | 19.7%24 W · 98 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.