Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eafb629af297b4cd154e7b2fad7f977e17284720e42b433766efe0eb31d0d35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $388,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $334,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $388,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 393 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 36c | 11,202$4,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,078.79 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 54c | 9,417$5,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,061.59 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc4…c01ebacked No | 58c | 8,000$4,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,336 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked Yes | 42c | 7,833$3,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 64c | 6,982$4,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,469.09 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 26c | 6,470$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.83 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 25c | 5,986$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.78 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 57c | 4,435$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes | 57c | 4,280$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,422.48 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 45c | 4,235$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,311.18 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 2c | 4,211$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 42c | 3,824$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 3,803$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.23 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 38c | 3,765$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.22 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 61c | 3,613$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.87 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 38c | 3,565$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.46 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 55c | 3,282$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.27 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 3,113$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.86 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 57c | 2,679$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.45 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 37c | 2,665$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.76 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 48c | 2,600$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.18 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 15c | 2,587$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.66 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 2,472$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.26 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…c29ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,365$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…bc38backed Yes | 9c | 2,319$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 46c | 2,196$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 9c | 2,112$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.35 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked Yes | 63c | 2,047$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.56 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 50c | 2,014$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.77 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 52c | 2,009$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.19 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac3…03eebacked Yes | 44c | 1,974$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.52 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +45%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa29f…b607backed Yes | 37c | 1,930$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.33 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 27c | 1,849$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.56 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 49c | 1,758$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.86 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 33c | 1,747$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.45 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,675$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 47c | 1,662$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.23 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 36c | 1,612$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.15 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Yes | 19c | 1,590$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 65c | 1,506$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.61 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3c98backed Yes | 30c | 1,446$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed Yes | 46c | 1,407$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.23 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 1,378$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 37c | 1,352$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,342$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 20c | 1,300$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.89 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…7723backed Yes | 11c | 1,282$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.68 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…2b42backed No | 62c | 1,280$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.54 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes | 5c | 1,263$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 42c | 1,235$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.31 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 67c | 1,211$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.63 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,182$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 55c | 1,125$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.97 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 53c | 1,098$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.54 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,072$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…0f44backed Yes | 19c | 1,058$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.9 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5853…144dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,033$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 43c | 1,009$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.18 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Yes | 6c | 954.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 28c | 950$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.3 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…f5a9backed Yes | 28c | 887.71$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.86 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…5323backed Yes | 57c | 862.03$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.9 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…6babbacked Yes | 50c | 858.99$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 48c | 850$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed Yes | 44c | 838.21$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed No | 23c | 829.25$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.88 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 818.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 53c | 804.58$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.42 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 38c | 803.18$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.5 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 71c | 800$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf1…0089backed Yes | 53c | 750$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 62c | 728.65$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.65 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 66c | 724.33$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.29 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 13c | 699.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked No | 69c | 695.92$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.84 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 42c | 686.98$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.36 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…7173backed No | 65c | 678.7$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed No | 59c | 675.45$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.88 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…06edbacked Yes | 8c | 674$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 14c | 653.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…23f0backed No | 19c | 650$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.8 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6370…50a4backed No | 33c | 647.4$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.52 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 20c | 640.76$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.93 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…e564backed Yes | 65c | 620.69$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.17 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…71a0backed No | 31c | 613.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.85 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 34c | 566$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.33 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…cb14backed Yes | 47c | 562.34$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.1 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 58c | 553.5$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.45 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 42c | 550$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.4 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…b17dbacked Yes | 33c | 548.92$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.65 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 3c | 545.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.