Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4613557f88e94346074439092b8b322193d7624910f359ac8f758b7879a2310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $534,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $421,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $534,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 2c | 46,379$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.81 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 8c | 22,635$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.49 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 12c | 18,391$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128.61 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 3c | 17,695$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.78 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 7c | 15,159$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 15c | 11,097$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.78 | 663 | 22.3%148 W · 515 L | -34.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 13c | 10,157$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.69 | 608 | 27.8%169 W · 439 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 21c | 10,010$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.66 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 15c | 7,088$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.29 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 15c | 6,000$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.99 | 549 | 23%126 W · 423 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 4,263$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.71 | 2,188 | 3.9%85 W · 2,103 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 3,840$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.2 | 239 | 18%43 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 16c | 3,554$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.18 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes | 2c | 3,542$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 11c | 3,470$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.82 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 10c | 3,456$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.81 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 1c | 3,438$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 16c | 3,294$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.64 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 78c | 3,173$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.48 | 556 | 75.2%418 W · 138 L | +35.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,113$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.17 | 781 | 21.8%170 W · 611 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,760$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.77 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 9c | 2,694$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.88 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.77 | 436 | 5%22 W · 414 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 9c | 2,472$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.18 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…fdebbacked Yes | 17c | 2,373$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 77c | 2,164$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.42 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,125$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.61 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…0f44backed Yes | 5c | 2,075$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,025$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 8c | 2,016$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.18 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 371 | 10.8%40 W · 331 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 9c | 1,870$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.58 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa29f…b607backed Yes | 22c | 1,835$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f6…9404backed Yes | 1c | 1,781$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 1,764$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1,219 | 8.7%106 W · 1,113 L | +32.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 29c | 1,744$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 11c | 1,702$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.25 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Yes | 19c | 1,569$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes | 9c | 1,551$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 89 | 16.9%15 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,488$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 80c | 1,414$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,392$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 276 | 7.2%20 W · 256 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,364$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 579 | 29.7%172 W · 407 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 18c | 1,347$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.75 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 16c | 1,307$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 1,297$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.18 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…24a1backed No | 80c | 1,278$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 9c | 1,205$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…636cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,144$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.27 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes | 6c | 1,087$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 11c | 1,047$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 144 | 19.4%28 W · 116 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 7c | 1,029$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 19c | 1,022$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.21 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6189…8f69backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101d…6615backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed Yes | 20c | 999.97$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 22c | 966.62$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.06 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked No | 79c | 963.96$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.7 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc616…3571backed Yes | 22c | 930.58$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed No | 75c | 929.85$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 1c | 920.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 18c | 899.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.12 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 6c | 899.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 877.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 629 | 13.2%83 W · 546 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…93eebacked Yes | 25c | 849.86$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 16c | 825.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 410 | 16.8%69 W · 341 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 26c | 812.61$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.64 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 2c | 803.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 13c | 752.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 12c | 732.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 77c | 723.07$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.96 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 17c | 677.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…f77bbacked Yes | 12c | 658.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 11c | 650$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 14c | 627.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1471…e9a4backed Yes | 16c | 617.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 14c | 600.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 76c | 581.64$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 10c | 568.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 13c | 549.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 10c | 536.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 5c | 500.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 223 | 23.3%52 W · 171 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 20c | 500.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 471 | 21%99 W · 372 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 17c | 500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 20c | 499.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 499.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 574 | 17.2%99 W · 475 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…4dbfbacked Yes | 13c | 484.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…bc38backed Yes | 4c | 464.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 13c | 459.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 164 | 20.7%34 W · 130 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 8c | 455.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd21…3c10backed Yes | 16c | 442.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760c…3d63backed Yes | 12c | 416.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 16c | 402.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.